Antimony’s Rise: Nyrstar and Australia’s Critical Mineral Play in a Resource-Constrained World

The global energy transition and defense modernization are fueling a race for critical minerals, with antimony emerging as a linchpin for industries ranging from fire-retardant electronics to lithium-ion batteries. Amid China’s tightening grip on global supply chains—accounting for over 80% of antimony production—Australia’s Nyrstar has positioned itself at the forefront of a strategic pivot to secure domestic production of this overlooked metal. With geopolitical tensions and supply chain fragility intensifying, investors are wise to consider Nyrstar as a gateway to a resource play with outsized upside.

The Strategic Imperative of Antimony

Antimony’s unique properties—high melting point, flame resistance, and synergy with lithium—are indispensable to modern infrastructure. It is a critical additive in flame-retardant cables, a component of lead-acid batteries used in renewable energy storage, and a key material in defense systems. Yet, global supply is perilously concentrated: China’s export quotas and environmental crackdowns have slashed global output by 15% since 2020, driving prices up 40% in the past two years.

Australia, home to the world’s fourth-largest antimony reserves but producing less than 1% of global supply, is now aggressively leveraging its resources. The government’s $1.2 billion Critical Minerals Stockpile Plan—though not yet including antimony—hints at its eventual inclusion as supply risks escalate. Meanwhile, projects like Mandalay Resources’ Costerfield mine (1,100 tons/year) and Warriedar’s Ricciardo deposit (60,300 tons of reserves) signal a sector-wide push to diversify supply chains.

Nyrstar’s Hidden Antimony Opportunity

While Nyrstar is best known for its zinc and lead smelters, its Port Pirie facility in South Australia quietly extracts antimony as a byproduct of its lead refining process. Though the company’s 2025 production cuts at its zinc smelter grabbed headlines, its antimony operations remain a stealth asset. A 2024 visit by Australia’s Critical Minerals Research Hub delegation highlighted Nyrstar’s collaboration with Geoscience Australia and CSIRO to optimize recovery of antimony and other critical minerals like indium and germanium from existing feedstock.

This synergy positions Nyrstar to capitalize on rising antimony demand without massive capital expenditure. As Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategy 2023–2030 emphasizes “maximizing value from existing operations,” Nyrstar’s ability to scale antimony production through process optimization could provide a quick win.

Valuation Upside and Policy Tailwinds

The numbers speak for themselves: antimony prices have surged to $8,000/ton in 2025, up from $5,000/ton in 2020, driven by lithium battery demand and China’s export curbs. With global reserves declining and new projects stalled by permitting delays, the supply-demand imbalance is self-reinforcing.

For Nyrstar, the upside is twofold:
1. Cost Advantage: Its antimony is a low-cost byproduct of existing operations, unlike greenfield projects requiring billions in upfront capital.
2. Policy Backing: Australia’s $40 million International Partnerships in Critical Minerals program could fund downstream processing facilities, allowing Nyrstar to move beyond raw material exports.

Meanwhile, Nyrstar’s stock—a proxy for broader critical mineral exposure—has lagged behind peers, offering a buying opportunity. While its smelter cuts in 2025 spooked short-term investors, the long-term bet on antimony’s strategic value remains underappreciated.

Risks and Mitigants

No investment is without risk. Regulatory hurdles—such as state-level environmental approvals—could delay new projects. Additionally, antimony’s price volatility, tied to lithium battery adoption cycles, poses a near-term uncertainty. However, the tailwinds of geopolitical decoupling and the energy transition argue for a buy-and-hold strategy.

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act’s EV tax credits, which require 40% of critical minerals to come from North America or U.S. allies by 2027, further incentivize Australia’s role as a trusted supplier. Nyrstar’s proximity to U.S. and European markets, paired with its existing infrastructure, makes it a prime beneficiary of this shift.

Conclusion: Positioning for Resource Nationalism

In an era of resource nationalism, antimony is no longer a niche play—it’s a necessity. Nyrstar’s ability to scale production alongside government-backed initiatives places it at the heart of Australia’s critical minerals renaissance. With antimony prices poised to climb further and supply constraints worsening, investors ignoring this sector risk missing one of the most compelling opportunities in the decarbonization economy.

The time to act is now. As China’s grip tightens and the West scrambles to secure supply chains, Nyrstar’s hidden antimony asset—and Australia’s resolve to mine its way to energy security—could deliver outsized returns for the bold.