Anthropic's API Business Surges 662% Driving AWS Growth

Amazon's cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), is experiencing significant growth in its AI capabilities, driven by its deep collaboration with Anthropic. This partnership is contributing substantially to AWS's revenue, yet the market has not fully recognized the potential of this AI-driven growth.

According to a recent analysis, Anthropic's API business has surpassed that of OpenAI, positioning itself as a major revenue contributor for AWS. By 2025, Anthropic's API business is projected to reach 3.907 billion dollars, marking a 662% increase from the previous year. In contrast, OpenAI's API business is expected to grow by only 80% during the same period. This disparity is largely due to the explosive growth of AI-integrated development environments (IDEs) such as Cursor and Lovable, which utilize Anthropic's Direct API for model authorization and pay on a per-token basis.

Anthropic's revenue from API services is expected to reach 1.6 billion dollars by 2025, with its annual recurring revenue (ARR) projected to surge from 100 million dollars at the beginning of the year to 900 million dollars by the end. However, there are concerns about the limitations on accessing Anthropic models through AWS Bedrock, which could pose challenges to the partnership.

Despite these challenges, the collaboration between Anthropic and AWS is expected to drive significant growth for AWS in the fourth quarter. Analysts predict that if AWS maintains its partnership with Anthropic, the company could see a 2% increase in revenue growth beyond market expectations. This growth is anticipated to be driven by the pre-training of Claude 5 and the additional revenue from reasoning services, which could contribute up to 4% to AWS's overall growth.

To support the rapid expansion of its AI business, AWS is significantly increasing its AI computing capacity. By the end of 2025, AWS is expected to have over 1 million H100-equivalent AI capacity units, thanks to the introduction of Blackwell GPUs and 400,000 Trainium "Project Rainier" chips. However, there are debates about whether AWS has sufficient AI capacity to support all of Anthropic's growth activities.

While the partnership between Anthropic and AWS has yielded substantial benefits, it also faces potential challenges. There have been industry complaints about the limitations on accessing Anthropic models through AWS Bedrock, and some key clients, such as Cursor, are beginning to shift towards OpenAI's GPT-5 API as their default choice. Despite these uncertainties, analysts remain optimistic about AWS's long-term prospects in the AI sector, given its strategic position in the market.