Annaly Capital Management Crosses Above Analyst Target Price

Annaly Capital Management Inc's stock has crossed above the average analyst 12-month target price of $20.70, reaching $20.86/share. The average is based on 11 analyst targets, with one as low as $19 and another as high as $23. The "wisdom of crowds" effort suggests that investors should assess the company's valuation and decide whether to hold or sell.

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) has made a significant move in the financial markets, with its stock price crossing above the average analyst 12-month target price. As of July 2, 2025, the stock has reached $20.86 per share, surpassing the average target of $20.70 based on 11 analyst predictions. This move highlights the growing confidence in the company's performance and strategic positioning in the mortgage REIT sector.

The average analyst target range was between $19 and $23, indicating a broad spectrum of expectations. However, the stock's recent performance has exceeded these estimates, suggesting a positive outlook from investors. The "wisdom of crowds" approach, which often aligns with the collective intelligence of market analysts, suggests that this stock price movement might be a reflection of the company's robust financial health and strategic initiatives.

In the second quarter of 2025, Annaly Capital reported mixed financial results. The company exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations, with an actual EPS of $0.73 compared to a forecast of $0.71. However, revenue fell significantly short of projections, coming in at $273.2 million against an anticipated $461.81 million. Despite this revenue shortfall, Annaly's stock showed minimal movement, with a slight premarket decline of 0.78%. The company's market capitalization remains at $12.42 billion, and its robust dividend yield of 13.69% continues to attract investors.

Key Takeaways:
- Annaly Capital surpassed EPS expectations by 2.82%.
- Revenue missed forecasts by 40.84%, marking a significant shortfall.
- The stock experienced a minor premarket decline of 0.78%.
- The agency MBS portfolio grew by 6% quarter-over-quarter.
- Annaly raised $750 million through its ATM program.

Annaly's overall performance in Q2 2025 was characterized by strong earnings but disappointing revenue. The company's economic return for the quarter was 0.7%, contributing to a year-to-date economic return of 3.7%. Despite the revenue miss, Annaly's total shareholder return exceeded 10%, reflecting resilience in its operations.

Looking ahead, Annaly Capital remains optimistic about strategic growth in its residential credit and MSR portfolios. The company anticipates remaining overweight in agency securities and sees potential opportunities from possible GSE reform. Future EPS forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 are $2.85 and $2.88, respectively.

Reference List:
[1] https://za.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-annaly-capital-q2-2025-beats-eps-forecast-revenue-falls-short-93CH-3803422