Anheuser-Busch InBev Plunges 5.5%, What’s Brewing in the Options Market?

Summary
• BUD drops 5.5% intraday to $66.305, a sharp reversal from its 200-day MA of $60.58
• Morgan Stanley reaffirms $78 target despite 11.06% consensus upside
• Sector leader TAP declines 2.5% amid rising commodity costs and tepid demand

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (BUD) intraday freefall has stunned markets, with the stock trading nearly 5.5% below its previous close of $70.2. The selloff aligns with aggressive bearish positioning in the options market, where the BUD20250801P65 put option surges 300% in price. With the stock nearing its 200-day MA and Bollinger Band support at $66.46, investors face a critical juncture: will this be a short-term correction or a deeper breakdown?

Options-Driven Sell-Off and Commodity Pressures Fuel BUD’s Sharp Decline
BUD’s 5.5% intraday plunge is fueled by aggressive bearish positioning in the options market, particularly in the BUD20250801P65 put option (strike $65, expiration 7/31), which has surged 300% in price and trades at 50.99% implied volatility. This suggests institutional short-sellers are capitalizing on near-term volatility, potentially triggered by soft consumer demand in the U.S. and Brazil. The move contrasts with a recent analyst rally, including a $78 price target from Morgan Stanley and a 11.06% consensus upside, highlighting the disconnect between fundamental optimism and short-term technical bearishness. Rising commodity costs and tepid summer beverage consumption further amplify sector-wide pressures.

Alcoholic Beverages Sector Sinks as TAP Dips 2.5% Amidst Commodity and Consumer Pressures
The alcoholic beverages sector mirrored BUD’s decline, with sector leader Molson Coors (TAP) falling 2.54% on the day. This synchronized drop indicates broader macroeconomic pressures, including rising commodity costs and tepid summer beverage consumption. While spirits and wine stocks showed resilience in sector news, beer producers like BUD and TAP face unique challenges from raw material inflation and shifting consumer preferences toward ready-to-drink cocktails. The sector’s weak performance underscores the vulnerability of beer producers to cyclical demand swings and cost inflation.

Put Options and Short-Dated Gamma Plays Take Center Stage
• 200-day MA: 60.58 (below current price)
• RSI: 62.4 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.118 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 66.46–70.54 (price near lower band)

BUD is testing key support levels near $66.46 (lower Bollinger Band) and the 200-day MA. A breakdown below $66.46 could trigger further short-term bearish momentum. The most compelling options plays are the BUD20250801P65 put and BUD20250801C67 call.

BUD20250801P65 Put
• Code: BUD20250801P65
• Strike: $65
• Expiry: 2025-08-01
• IV: 50.99% (high volatility)
• LVR: 83.59% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: -0.304 (moderate directional bias)
• Theta: -0.0139 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.0877 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 6424 (high liquidity)

BUD20250801C67 Call
• Code: BUD20250801C67
• Strike: $67
• Expiry: 2025-08-01
• IV: 48.05% (moderate volatility)
• LVR: 54.83% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: 0.4449 (neutral directional bias)
• Theta: -0.3097 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.1053 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 151370 (extremely liquid)

BUD20250801P65 Put offers asymmetric risk/reward for a 5% downside scenario (target price: $63.51). Payoff calculation: max(0, $63.51 - $65) = $0 (strike not breached). However, its high gamma and moderate delta make it ideal for short-term volatility plays if BUD breaks below $66.46. BUD20250801C67 Call is a high-gamma, short-dated play for a potential bounce above $67.70 (intraday high). Under a 5% upside scenario (target: $70.15), payoff: max(0, $70.15 - $67) = $3.15. Its high turnover and moderate leverage make it a viable short-term bullish bet if BUD retests resistance.

Aggressive bears should target the BUD20250801P65 put if the $66.46 support breaks; bulls may consider the BUD20250801C67 call into a rebound above $67.70.

Backtest Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock Performance
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term performance following a -6% intraday plunge. The backtest data reveals that the 3-day win rate is 52.48%, the 10-day win rate is 50.60%, and the 30-day win rate is 49.23%. While the returns are modest, with a maximum return of 2.28% over 30 days, the consistency of positive outcomes suggests that BUD can recover from such significant dips.

Critical Juncture: Watch for $66.46 Breakdown or Regulatory Reaction
BUD’s -5.5% intraday plunge signals a critical juncture for the stock and the broader brewers sector. The breakdown below $66.46 would validate bearish momentum, while a rebound above $67.70 could reignite the sector’s 11.06% consensus upside. Investors must monitor TAP’s -2.54% decline as a sector barometer. For immediate action: short-sellers target the $66.46 level, while bulls look for a bounce above $67.70 before expiration on 8/1. Watch for $66.46 breakdown or regulatory reaction.