Anheuser-Busch InBev Plunges 5.14%—Is This the Bottom for the Brewing Giant?

Summary
• Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) opens at $67.68, intraday low hits $66.56
• Stock trades at $66.595, down 5.14% from previous close of $70.2
• 52-week high at $72.13, 52-week low at $45.94
• Morgan Stanley reaffirms Buy rating with $78 target, but stock falls 4.76%

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s intraday plunge of nearly 5% has ignited a firestorm of speculation, with the stock trading near its lower Bollinger Band of $66.46. The sharp selloff defies recent analyst optimism and contrasts with a broader sector rally in spirits and wine. Traders are now scrambling to decipher whether this is a short-term volatility play or a deeper structural shift in the beer giant’s fortunes.

Options-Driven Sell-Off and Sector Pressures Collide
BUD’s intraday plunge aligns with aggressive bearish positioning in the options market, particularly the BUD20250801P65 put option, which has seen a 300% price change ratio and 50.99% implied volatility. This suggests institutional short-sellers are capitalizing on near-term volatility, likely triggered by soft consumer demand in key markets like the U.S. and Brazil. Additionally, macroeconomic pressures—rising commodity costs and tepid summer beverage consumption—are weighing on the sector, compounding the sell-off.

Brewers Sector Sinks with TAP's 2.5% Drop
The alcoholic beverages sector mirrored BUD’s decline, with sector leader Molson Coors (TAP) falling 2.54% on the day. This synchronized drop indicates broader macroeconomic pressures, including rising commodity costs and tepid summer beverage consumption. While spirits and wine stocks showed resilience in sector news, beer producers like BUD and TAP face unique challenges from raw material inflation and shifting consumer preferences toward ready-to-drink cocktails.

Options Playbook: Put and Call Strategies for the Volatile BUD Move
• 200-day MA: 60.58 (below current price)
• RSI: 62.4 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.118 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 66.46–70.54 (price near lower band)

BUD is testing key support levels near $66.46 (lower Bollinger Band) and the 200-day MA. A breakdown below $66.46 could trigger further short-term bearish momentum. The most compelling options plays are the BUD20250801P65 put and BUD20250801C67 call.

BUD20250801P65 Put
• Code: BUD20250801P65
• Strike: $65
• Expiry: 2025-08-01
• IV: 50.99% (high volatility)
• LVR: 83.59% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: -0.304 (moderate directional bias)
• Theta: -0.0139 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.0877 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 712 (high liquidity)
High gamma and moderate delta make this put ideal for short-term volatility plays if BUD breaks below $66.46. Payoff calculation: max(0, $63.51 - $65) = $0 (strike not breached).

BUD20250801C67 Call
• Code: BUD20250801C67
• Strike: $67
• Expiry: 2025-08-01
• IV: 48.05% (moderate volatility)
• LVR: 46.12% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: 0.500 (neutral directional bias)
• Theta: -0.3323 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.1061 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 75,056 (extremely liquid)
High turnover and moderate leverage make this call a viable short-term bullish bet if BUD retests resistance above $67.70. Payoff: max(0, $70.15 - $67) = $3.15.

Hook: Aggressive bears should target the BUD20250801P65 put if the $66.46 support breaks; bulls may consider the BUD20250801C67 call into a rebound above $67.70.

Backtest Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock Performance
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term performance following a -5% intraday plunge. The backtest data reveals that:1. Frequency and Win Rates: The event occurred 594 times over the past five years. The 3-day win rate is 52.36%, the 10-day win rate is 51.01%, and the 30-day win rate is 49.33%. This indicates a higher probability of a positive return in the short term following the intraday plunge.2. Returns: The average 3-day return is 0.06%, the 10-day return is 0.14%, and the 30-day return is 0.74%. While the returns are modest, they are positive, suggesting that BUD tends to recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels in the short term.3. Maximum Return: The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.33%, which occurred on day 59 after the event. This highlights that while the recovery may not be immediate, BUD can experience significant gains several weeks after the intraday plunge.In conclusion, a -5% intraday plunge in BUD has historically led to positive short-term returns, with the highest returns occurring within 30 days. This makes it a potentially favorable entry point for investors looking to capitalize on rebounds.

Act Now: Watch for $66.46 Breakdown or Rebound Above $67.70
The sustainability of BUD’s decline hinges on its ability to hold key support at $66.46 or retest resistance near $67.70. A breakdown below $66.46 could accelerate the selloff, while a rebound above $67.70 may reignite the sector’s 11.06% consensus upside. Sector leader TAP (Molson Coors) has fallen 2.54% today, amplifying concerns about broader macroeconomic pressures. Investors should prioritize monitoring BUD20250801P65 and BUD20250801C67 options for directional plays. Watch for $66.46 breakdown or regulatory reaction.