Angola's Strategic Oil Exploration Moves and Chevron's Entry into Deepwater Blocks

The global energy landscape, still reeling from the pandemic’s disruptions, has seen Angola recalibrate its hydrocarbon strategy to attract upstream investors. With a mix of aging fields, regulatory reforms, and high-stakes deepwater projects, the country’s oil sector presents a complex calculus for capital. Chevron’s recent foray into offshore Block 33/24 underscores both the opportunities and risks inherent in Angola’s energy transition.

A Sector in Transition

Angola’s oil production has long been a linchpin of its economy, though output has steadily declined since its 2008 peak of 2 million barrels per day (bpd). By early 2025, production had fallen to 1.03 million bpd, with further dips to 998,757 bpd in Q3 2025, marking the first time since its OPEC exit in 2023 that output has slipped below the 1 million bpd threshold [1]. Despite this, the country’s proven reserves remain robust, with estimates ranging from 2.6 billion barrels [2] to 9 billion barrels [3], depending on the source. This discrepancy highlights the need for updated assessments, as reserve definitions and exploration methodologies evolve.

Recent projects, however, offer a glimmer of hope. TotalEnergies’ CLOV Phase 3 and BEGONIA developments have added 60,000 bpd to Angola’s output, while Azule Energy’s Agogo FPSO is projected to peak at 175,000 bpd [1]. These initiatives, coupled with Chevron’s Sanha Lean Gas and Quiluma fields, suggest a short-term stabilization of production. Yet, long-term growth remains constrained by underinvestment in new projects and the natural decline of mature fields.

Chevron’s Deepwater Gambit

Chevron’s entry into Block 33/24—a deepwater asset adjacent to the prolific Blocks 17 and 32—signals confidence in Angola’s untapped potential. The block, located in the Lower Congo Basin, aligns with Chevron’s broader strategy to expand its presence in high-impact basins. However, this optimism is tempered by a recent tragedy: a fire at Chevron’s BBLT platform in Block 14, which resulted in three fatalities and 17 injuries during a scheduled maintenance shutdown [4]. The incident, still under investigation by Angola’s ANPG, has raised questions about operational safety and regulatory oversight.

The BBLT platform, designed to produce 220,000 bpd, is a critical asset for Chevron’s operations in the region. Its temporary shutdown has not only disrupted output but also intensified scrutiny of foreign operators in Angola. While Chevron has emphasized its commitment to safety, the incident underscores the inherent risks of deepwater operations in a jurisdiction where regulatory enforcement is still maturing.

Regulatory and Market Dynamics

Angola’s government has taken steps to improve the investment climate, including streamlining licensing processes and offering tax incentives for deepwater exploration. The country’s 9 billion barrel reserve estimate [3]—if verified—could attract further interest, particularly as global demand for oil remains resilient amid energy transition debates. However, the recent fire has exposed vulnerabilities in the regulatory framework. ANPG’s threat of penalties against Chevron could deter other majors from entering the market, especially if enforcement becomes inconsistent or politically motivated.

Meanwhile, Angola’s pivot to gas presents a complementary opportunity. Plans to boost gas production by over 20% by 2030 and expand export infrastructure aim to diversify the energy mix and reduce reliance on crude [2]. For upstream investors, this dual focus on oil and gas could create a more stable revenue stream, though execution risks remain high.

Assessing Attractiveness for Investors

For upstream players, Angola’s hydrocarbon sector offers a mix of high-reward and high-risk propositions. On the positive side, the country’s deepwater blocks hold significant potential, with Chevron’s Block 33/24 and TotalEnergies’ recent offshore acquisitions signaling confidence. The Agogo FPSO and other near-term projects could provide a production floor for 2025.

Yet, challenges abound. Aging infrastructure, limited fiscal transparency, and the recent safety incident at Chevron’s BBLT platform highlight operational and regulatory risks. Moreover, the lack of large-scale new projects threatens to erode production further in the medium term. Investors must weigh these factors against Angola’s strategic location, its reserve base, and the government’s stated commitment to modernize the sector.

Conclusion

Angola’s oil sector is at a crossroads. While deepwater exploration and gas diversification offer compelling opportunities, the path to sustained growth is fraught with challenges. Chevron’s entry into Block 33/24 and the government’s regulatory reforms are positive steps, but the recent BBLT incident serves as a stark reminder of the risks involved. For upstream investors, the key will be to balance optimism with caution, leveraging Angola’s potential while mitigating the uncertainties of a market still in transition.

Source:
[1] Angola production dips below million-barrel level for first time post-OPEC [https://www.worldoil.com/news/2025/8/21/angola-production-dips-below-million-barrel-level-for-first-time-post-opec/]
[2] Angola Energy Overview [https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/ago]
[3] Angola seeks gas growth as oil output flatlines despite OPEC exit [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/angola-seeks-gas-growth-oil-output-flatlines-despite-opec-exit-2025-08-14/]
[4] Three dead in Chevron's Angolan oil platform fire [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/three-dead-chevrons-angolan-oil-platform-fire-2025-05-28/]