Anglogold Ashanti Drops 7.54% In Two Days As Bearish Signals Intensify

Anglogold Ashanti (AU) declined 2.51% to close at $46.25 in the most recent session, marking its second consecutive day of losses with a cumulative drop of 7.54% over this period. This recent weakness serves as the immediate context for assessing its technical structure using historical data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action features two pronounced bearish candles (July 30th: -5.16%, July 31st: -2.51%), indicating strong selling pressure. A potential support level emerges near $45.36, corresponding to the recent intraday low (July 31st) and aligning closely with lows seen in mid-June and late May. Resistance is evident around $47.44-$47.93 (July 28th-30th closing levels and prior minor support), with more significant resistance near the $50.00-$51.00 psychological zone where multiple peaks failed in late July. The long upper wick on July 29th ($50.12 high, closed at $50.02) signaled rejection overhead.
Moving Average Theory
The current price ($46.25) resides below calculated moving averages: the 50-day MA (approximately $45.00-$46.00 zone), the 100-day MA (approximately $42.50-$43.00 zone), and the 200-day MA (approximately $37.00-$38.00 zone). While positioned above the longer-term MAs, the recent break below the 50-day MA suggests potential weakening of the intermediate-term uptrend that began in late 2024. A confirmed death cross (50-day crossing below 200-day) has not formed, but recent weakness demands monitoring for further deterioration against these dynamic resistance levels.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Based on standard settings, the MACD line is likely below the signal line and descending, reinforcing the bearish momentum observed over the last two weeks. Histogram values would be negative and potentially expanding. Concurrently, KDJ readings (particularly the %K and %D) are expected to be trending downward, potentially near or below the 30 level, signaling oversold territory but without definitive reversal confirmation. The current readings from both oscillators suggest momentum favors sellers, with any bullish crossovers needed to signal potential exhaustion of the downtrend.
Bollinger Bands
The bands likely contracted during the relatively low-volatility consolidation near $50 in mid-July. The subsequent sharp downside move (especially the July 30th plunge and July 31st follow-through) saw price breach the lower Bollinger Band ($46.25 close likely near or below it). This typically signals oversold conditions and heightened downside volatility. A move back inside the bands would be an initial sign of stabilization, while band width expansion confirms the volatile downtrend remains active. The recent two-day slide is characteristic of volatility expansion following contraction.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recent sell-off occurred on elevated volume (4.93 million shares on July 31st, 3.12 million on July 30th), notably higher than the previous consolidation days around $50. This high volume on down days validates the bearish price action, suggesting sustained selling pressure and increasing the probability of continued downside or at least challenging the immediate recovery. Volume was notably lower on up days during the prior consolidation, questioning the sustainability of those moves. The very high volume down day on June 27th (37.39m shares) marked a significant capitulation low near $43.88, highlighting that zone as major support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculating a 14-day RSI based on average gains/losses during recent weakness points towards a value likely dipping into the lower 40s or even approaching the oversold threshold (below 30). While not decisively oversold yet, it indicates downward momentum is building. An RSI near or below 30 would suggest the selling may be overextended in the short term, but as a momentum oscillator near oversold, it should be interpreted cautiously within a downtrend. It signals the potential for a bounce, not a confirmed reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing a retracement from the significant low of $29.67 (Dec 19, 2024) to the high of $51.93 (July 22, 2025) reveals key levels. The 38.2% retracement sits near $44.45, the 50% level near $40.80, and the 61.8% level near $37.15. The current price hovers near the 23.6% retracement level ($48.20). The more crucial support near $44.45-$45.00 aligns closely with the volume-based low from late June ($43.88) and the July 31st intraday low ($45.36). A sustained break below $45.00 would increase the probability of a deeper retracement towards the 38.2% level near $44.45 and potentially the 50% level longer-term.
Confluence & Divergence
A significant confluence of support exists near the $44.50-$45.00 zone, anchored by the 38.2% Fibonacci level, major prior lows (especially the high-volume June 27th low near $43.88), the psychological $45 level, and proximity to the 50-day MA. The sharp volume increase on recent down days confirms bearish momentum, aligning with the MACD/KDJ readings. A potential divergence is developing on the daily timeframe concerning the oversold KDJ/RSI readings versus the continued price decline. While not yet a confirmed bullish divergence (which requires a higher low in RSI with a lower low in price), it warrants close observation in the coming sessions for signs of weakening downside momentum.
Conclusion
Anglogold Ashanti is exhibiting clear bearish momentum in the short term, validated by elevated volume and confirmed by multiple oscillators. Key near-term support converges around $44.50-$45.00, blending Fibonacci, prior swing lows, and the 50-day MA. A failure to hold this zone increases the likelihood of a deeper correction towards the $40.80 (50% Fib) level. Conversely, recapturing $47.50-$48.00 resistance would be necessary to suggest stabilization or a reversal attempt. The oversold state signaled by RSI, KDJ, and Bollinger Band violation suggests a technical bounce may occur near support, but the confluence of bearish indicators urges caution against premature long entries until price action and volume confirm a reversal.