Anglo American plc (NGLOD): Hold the Line as Platinum's Future Outweighs Near-Term Technical Slump

The market for Anglo American plc (NGLOD) is a study in contrasts—short-term technicals scream caution, while a transformative strategic move sets the stage for long-term dominance in platinum's golden age. Let's dissect the chaos and clarity here.

The Near-Term Technicals: A Bearish Grind

As of June 2025, NGLOD's price of $13.07 sits below both its 50-day moving average ($13.74) and 200-day moving average ($14.64)—a bearish “death cross” that signals weakness. The MACD line is entrenched in negative territory, confirming downward momentum, and volume has dried up to lethargic levels.

The stock is hovering near critical support levels:
- Immediate support: $12.35 (a break here risks a slide to $11.57).
- Key resistance: $13.91 (a breakout could spark a rebound).

The technical picture is bleak for bulls now, with analysts rating it a “Hold” due to low volatility and mixed signals. Traders are advised to set a stop-loss at $12.24—6% below current prices—to mitigate downside risk.

The Strategic Shift: Platinum's New World Order

While the charts look gloomy, Anglo American's decision to demerge Valterra's platinum assets is a masterstroke. By spinning off Valterra—a 40% global platinum producer—Anglo is sharpening its focus on copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients, sectors critical to the energy transition. Valterra, meanwhile, becomes a pure-play PGM giant, listing on both the JSE and LSE to access global capital.

The demerger unlocks value in two ways:
1. Valterra's Cost Advantage: Its production costs are among the lowest in the industry at $17,500–$17,800 per PGM ounce, and its recycling programs recover 95–98% of PGMs from used products.
2. Platinum's Demand Surge: The metal is indispensable for green hydrogen electrolyzers, EV catalytic converters, and advanced tech. Wood Mackenzie forecasts a PGM supply deficit by 2030, with platinum demand growing 10% annually as the hydrogen economy scales.

Why Hold Now—and Buy Later

The conflict here is clear: short-term technicals say sell, but long-term fundamentals say buy. My advice? Hold NGLOD until support at $12.35 is tested. Here's why:

• Patience Pays: If NGLOD holds above $12.35, it could rebound toward resistance at $13.91. A break above $14.64 (the 200-day MA) would signal a trend reversal.
• Valterra's Catalysts: The demerger's tax benefits (e.g., 20% dividend tax rate for South African investors) and Valterra's $2.3B liquidity create runway for growth.
• Platinum's Timing: The hydrogen economy isn't hypothetical—it's already in motion. Governments are funding projects that will multiply platinum demand, and Valterra's reserves in South Africa's Bushveld Complex ensure supply dominance.

Final Take: Stay Defensive, Stay Opportunistic

For now, NGLOD is a “Hold”—the risks of falling below $12.35 are too great to chase upside. But keep an eye on July 2025: if platinum prices stabilize and Valterra's valuation multiples expand (it trades at 8.5x EV/EBITDA vs. peers' 12x), NGLOD could rebound sharply.

When to buy? Wait for a bounce to $13.91, then set a tight stop. Alternatively, use a dollar-cost averaging strategy as NGLOD tests $12.35 support. This isn't a sprint—it's a marathon, and platinum's future is the finish line.

Invest wisely, and hold your nerve.