Analysts Spot Bitcoin Price Rebound Window - Could Trump's 10% Credit Cap Trigger It?

Bitcoin prices have surged near the $100,000 level, supported by limited sell-side liquidity and robust buying interest. In early 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $1.2 billion in inflows, despite a $243.24 million outflow on January 6. Morgan Stanley has filed for new crypto ETFs, further easing market uncertainty.

Meanwhile, institutional appetite for Bitcoin has shown signs of returning. On January 5, spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed a net inflow of $697 million, the largest single-day inflow since October 2025. BlackRock’s IBIT alone pulled in $372 million.

The convergence of miner-cost support and potential policy-driven demand has created a high-volatility environment for Bitcoin. Analysts suggest that the coming weeks may prove critical in testing whether Bitcoin can capitalize on both flow-driven fundamentals and macroeconomic shocks.

Why Did This Happen?

President Donald Trump proposed a one-year cap on credit-card interest rates of 10%, effective January 20, 2026. The move has sparked debate about its impact on the financial sector and broader economic implications. Trump’s announcement emphasized consumer affordability concerns and sought to limit what he described as "extortion" by credit-card companies.

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Analysts, however, question the likelihood of the proposal becoming a reality. Jefferies analyst John Hecht stated that Trump lacks executive authority to implement the cap independently and that legislative support is unlikely. The proposal could also trigger tighter lending standards and weaker retail consumption.

How Did Markets React?

Despite the uncertainty around Trump’s proposal, Bitcoin has continued to show resilience. ETF inflows remain strong, and institutional buying is evident. Morgan Stanley’s entry into the crypto ETF space has also added to market optimism.

Bitcoin miners are also exploring innovative ways to use energy. Canaan has begun a pilot program in Canada to use heat from Bitcoin miners to supplement greenhouses, showcasing the industry's push toward sustainability.

The broader market has also seen renewed interest in tokenized real-world assets. By late 2025, onchain representations of stocks and commodities surpassed $1 billion, signaling a growing convergence of traditional and digital markets.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring the interplay between Bitcoin's price and liquidity trends. While short-term bullish forces appear strong, structural uncertainty remains. The convergence of miner-cost support and potential policy-driven demand has created an environment where Bitcoin could experience significant price swings.

Institutional inflows continue to support Bitcoin's price. However, liquidity flows have been declining relative to price momentum, suggesting that temporary rallies may lack the support needed for sustained upside. This dynamic creates a rare inflection point for the market.

The coming weeks will be crucial for Bitcoin as it faces both flow-driven fundamentals and macroeconomic shocks. Analysts are watching for signs that the market can sustain its current momentum or if volatility will return.

The Trump administration's broader economic policies will also play a role. The proposed credit-card rate cap has sparked debate about its potential to alter financial-sector earnings and business models. However, analysts remain skeptical about its feasibility.

In the mining sector, a potential merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore could create the world's largest mining company. The deal, if completed, would significantly expand copper production and compete with BHP Group. The outcome of these discussions could have broader implications for commodity markets.

Investors should also watch for regulatory developments in the crypto sector. Morgan Stanley's filing for new crypto ETFs and the ongoing scrutiny of platforms like Binance highlight the evolving landscape for digital assets.