Analysts: Robotaxi Hype May Not Be Enough To Cover Up Tesla's 'Serious Demand Problem' In Q2

Tesla is less than one week away from releasing its Q2 delivery figures. The consensus delivery estimate has declined to 393,000 vehicles - below the 443,956 units delivered in the same period last year but showing improvement from Q1's 336,681 deliveries. Tesla's quarterly delivery record stands at 495,570 units, achieved in Q4 2024.

Investment bank Baird has lowered its Q2 delivery estimate to 377,000 vehicles. Analyst Ben Kallo noted that weak third-party data since May, coupled with the gradual ramp-up of refreshed Model Y production (which continued to some extent this quarter), may lead to disappointing results.

Kallo suggests that while deliveries remain an important fundamental component, he notes that the recent Robotaxi launch and enthusiasm around this opportunity may dominate near-term sentiment. He believes the introduction of a more affordable vehicle could create a net negative profit impact in the second half of 2025.

Meanwhile, Barclays analysts project Tesla will deliver approximately 375,000 EVs in Q2 2025, while UBS forecasts quarterly deliveries of 366,000 units.

UBS stated in its report that with investors focused on Tesla's Robotaxi ambitions, many bulls may "ignore" EV delivery figures as they believe Tesla's value lies in AI (robotaxis and humanoid robots). However, UBS emphasized that Tesla's current financial performance still primarily relies on its automotive business. This business not only funds cutting-edge initiatives but also, as the stock rises while auto fundamentals deteriorate, the market appears to be assigning higher premiums to already expensive AI options despite limited supporting data.

UBS suggested that weaker-than-expected delivery numbers could serve as a reality check. Historical data shows missed delivery expectations typically pressure Tesla's stock, but last quarter's anomaly warrants caution: despite deliveries coming in 11% below expectations, Tesla shares rallied 5%, marking the largest divergence since 2022. This may indicate Tesla has moved further into a world where "auto fundamentals don't matter."

Seeking Alpha analyst Jonathan Weber noted: "In Q1, deliveries were bad, which Tesla explained with the Model Y changeover. If numbers in Q2 do not improve meaningfully, then the Model Y changeover excuse would fall flat -- that would suggest that Tesla has a significant and ongoing demand problem. Recent country-level numbers from China and some European countries suggest that there is a good likelihood that overall Q2 deliveries were underwhelming, so investors may want to brace for the possibility of bad news."

Oakoff Investments observed:  "The narrative on the market right now says the Q2 should be close to Q1 FY2025, but the latest data from China suggests that the actual figure might come in at a lower level again... The competition in the industry is clearly heating up, especially in China. On the other hand, the European selling market is showing some weakening for TSLA as well... Historically, however, Q2 deliveries have almost always been higher than Q1 deliveries, so there's a chance that Q2 will match Q1 (or even beat it slightly, with a double-digit YoY decline though), thus relaxing the market's already lowered expectations."