Analysts Remain Skeptical About 'Whether Venezuela Holds 600K BTC'

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Bitcoin prices surged over the weekend amid speculation that the U.S. military operation in Venezuela may have targeted the country's reported $60 billion Bitcoin holdings. Traders and investors are analyzing the potential impact of these events on global cryptocurrency markets and Bitcoin supply dynamics. Analysts note that any U.S. seizure or freezing of these assets could alter the balance of Bitcoin supply, potentially supporting a more bullish market outlook.

Reports from intelligence sources and researchers indicate that Venezuela may have accumulated a secret Bitcoin reserve of 600,000–660,000 BTC between 2018 and 2025. This accumulation reportedly began with the conversion of gold proceeds into Bitcoin and expanded through oil settlements in Tether (USDT) and domestic mining operations according to analysis. The reserve's total value, estimated at $60–67 billion, could make Venezuela one of the largest institutional Bitcoin holders globally according to reports.

The U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has intensified speculation about the fate of the alleged reserve. If confirmed, the size of Venezuela's holdings would be comparable to major institutional investors like BlackRock and MicroStrategy. The potential removal of such a large portion of Bitcoin from circulation could create a significant supply shock, especially compared to smaller government sales like Germany's 2024 liquidation of 50,000 BTC.

Why Is the Market Reacting to Venezuela's Alleged Bitcoin Holdings?

Bitcoin prices climbed to $93,000 in the wake of the U.S. operation, with some analysts attributing the rise to the possibility of the U.S. freezing or seizing Venezuela's Bitcoin supply. Hina Sattar Joshi, digital assets sales director at TP ICAP, noted that such a move could remove a meaningful supply of Bitcoin from the market, supporting a longer-term bullish outlook.

The uncertainty surrounding Venezuela's Bitcoin reserves has also contributed to broader market volatility. Both Bitcoin and Ether saw gains in early 2026, as investors balanced geopolitical risk with broader risk-on sentiment according to market analysis. Additionally, the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela has triggered mixed reactions in equities, energy, and precious metals markets according to financial reports.

How Are Analysts Evaluating the Potential Outcomes?

Analysts have identified three possible scenarios for how the U.S. might handle the alleged Venezuelan Bitcoin reserve. The first is a full seizure, in which the U.S. Treasury would freeze the assets and prevent them from being moved or sold according to analysis. This scenario could significantly reduce Bitcoin's circulating supply and reinforce long-term price trends.

The second scenario is the U.S. treating the seized assets as a strategic reserve, similar to how some governments manage gold or other commodities. This approach would not immediately impact market prices but could support Bitcoin's value over time. The third and least likely outcome is a fire sale, in which the U.S. would quickly liquidate the Bitcoin holdings. While analysts consider this scenario unlikely, it would trigger extreme short-term volatility.

What Do Market Participants Need to Watch For?

Investors are closely monitoring the U.S. government's next steps. The potential handling of Venezuela's Bitcoin reserve could set a precedent for how other governments treat large institutional Bitcoin holdings. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in January will influence broader risk appetite and asset valuations.

The crypto market is also watching for any regulatory actions that might emerge from this geopolitical development. The Genius Act, signed into law in July 2025, has already provided some clarity for stablecoin regulation in the U.S. according to financial analysts. If the U.S. decides to establish legal ownership of Venezuela's Bitcoin holdings, it could signal a new era for government involvement in digital assets.

Bitcoin's price has been volatile in early 2026, with some analysts suggesting that the market is still digesting the implications of the Trump administration's policies and global geopolitical developments. While Bitcoin reached a near four-week high of $93,221, it remains below its peak of $126,223 from October 2025.

As the situation in Venezuela continues to evolve, the global financial markets remain on edge. The potential impact of the alleged Bitcoin reserve could reshape the cryptocurrency landscape in 2026 and beyond. Investors are advised to monitor both geopolitical and macroeconomic developments as they shape the next phase of Bitcoin's price trajectory.