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Analyst Expects BYD To Surpass Tesla As The Top EV Seller This Year

AInvestWednesday, Jul 24, 2024 7:01 am ET
1min read

Some analysts predict that this year, the annual sales of pure electric vehicles by BYD, the Chinese electric vehicle giant, are expected to surpass those of Tesla.

Given the continued surge in demand for electric vehicles in China, while demand in the US and Europe is stagnant, industry research institution BI wrote in a recently released report that Tesla's sales of electric vehicles will be outperformed by BYD this year.

This is a big turnaround from the forecast made in January this year when BI predicted that Tesla would continue to lead BYD until 2030.

BI's Senior European Automotive Analyst Michael Dean pointed out in the report that the stagnation of demand for pure electric vehicles in Europe and America means that internal combustion engine vehicles, including hybrid vehicles, will be welcomed back, which will extend the profits of traditional automakers such as General Motors, Volkswagen, and Ford, and may also promote further stock buybacks or acquisition activities by these companies.

Earlier this month, a report released by market research agency Counterpoint Research also showed that it is estimated that the global sales of pure electric vehicles will exceed 10 million in 2024, and BYD will surpass Tesla in terms of pure electric vehicle sales.

On Tuesday, Tesla announced disappointing quarterly profits. The automaker's sales were far from the same period last year, and it warned again that the expected growth rate of sales in 2024 will significantly decline.

BI analyst believes this description suggests Tesla's initial goal of 50% annual growth has become unattainable, and the company's long-term success will depend on a cheaper, mass-produced Model 2, which has not yet been launched.

Meanwhile, BYD has continued to grow this year, benefiting from significant discounts in the domestic market, with shipments of electric and hybrid vehicles approaching one million in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter of last year, BYD's sales of pure electric vehicles also reached 526,400, surpassing Tesla's 484,500 in the same period.

For the whole of last year, Tesla topped the global electric vehicle sales with a volume of 1.81 million, while BYD, although its annual vehicle sales exceeded 3 million, had 1.575 million pure electric vehicles, ranking second.

In the long run, BI expects BYD to maintain a leading sales position over Tesla before 2027, and then Tesla will regain the sales crown in 2028, while Volkswagen, ranked third, will gradually narrow the gap with the top two competitors.

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