Analyst Claims $5 Billion XRP Selling Flow on Upbit: What It Means for Price

A market analyst has identified a nearly year-long algorithmic selling flow in the XRP/KRW market on South Korea's Upbit exchange. The activity, based on 82 million tick-level trades, has shown a consistent net negative cumulative volume delta (CVD) for 10 months. This suggests a sustained directional sell pressure in the market.

The estimated net selling represents 3.3 billion XRP, valued at approximately $5 billion, based on the current circulating supply. The majority of these trades were executed within 10 milliseconds, pointing to automated, algorithmic execution. This is a key indicator of systematic selling rather than random market behavior.

The phenomenon appears to be specific to Upbit, as the XRP/USDT pair on Binance shows significantly less sell pressure. This implies that the activity on Upbit is not a global trend but rather a localized issue affecting the XRP/KRW market.

Why Did This Happen?

The selling activity is considered unusually consistent, with large negative CVDs recorded in months such as April, July, October, and January. The pattern suggests a structural, rather than discretionary, sell flow. Analyst Dom argues that the volume and speed of trades indicate execution infrastructure rather than traditional trading strategies.

The trades often occur in round-number sizes, such as 10, 100, or 1,000 XRP, further supporting the idea of algorithmic execution. This has raised concerns that the flow could be a programmed seller offloading supply at a steady pace.

The XRP/KRW pair has traded at a 3% to 6% discount to Binance during the period under review, an inverse of the typical "Kimchi Premium." This suggests that sellers on Upbit may be Korean holders taking profits. The price effect is most likely indirect, as it absorbs demand before it translates into significant price appreciation.

The sell pressure could limit upward momentum and amplify declines during market stress. XRP is already under bearish technical pressure, with a rising wedge pattern and bearish RSI divergence. A recent price rejection near $1.67 has confirmed the bearish signal.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The ongoing whale–holder battle will determine whether the price continues its downward trajectory. Long-term holders are attempting to absorb the supply, but if the selling pressure remains consistent, it could further depress the price. The current $5 billion selling flow represents about 5.4% of the circulating supply, which is a significant portion.

Analysts are closely monitoring the behavior of the XRP market on Upbit to determine whether this structural sell flow is sustainable or if it will reduce in intensity. Any shift in the balance between supply and demand could lead to a reversal in price dynamics.

The findings are particularly relevant as XRP was the most traded asset on Upbit in 2025. If the selling pattern continues, it could affect not only the XRP/KRW pair but also the broader perception of XRP's liquidity and market health.

Investors are advised to watch for signs of decreasing sell pressure or a shift in the balance of supply and demand. A reduction in algorithmic selling could signal a turning point for the asset's price action in the coming months.