AMPX Soars 13.1% on UAV Breakthrough and Earnings Hype: Is This the Start of a Bull Run?

Summary
• Amprius Technologies (AMPX) surges 13.1% intraday, trading at $13.8999 after opening at $12.73.
• Recent news highlights a $35M UAV battery order and a Q3 2025 earnings call scheduled for November 6.
• Options volatility spikes, with 2025-11-21 $14 calls trading at 74.75% price change and 8.16% leverage.
• The stock’s 52-week high of $16.03 remains a critical psychological barrier. This explosive move reflects a confluence of product momentum and investor anticipation ahead of key corporate updates.

UAV Battery Win and Earnings Catalyst Fuel AMPX’s Surge
AMPX’s 13.1% intraday rally is directly tied to its recent $35 million purchase order for high-energy density SiMaxx batteries from a leading UAS manufacturer, announced on September 15, 2025. This contract, coupled with the company’s selection by ESAero to power next-generation UAVs, has reignited investor confidence in its silicon anode technology. Additionally, the upcoming Q3 2025 earnings call on November 6 has amplified short-term speculation, as the market anticipates guidance on revenue growth and production capacity expansion. The stock’s breakout above its 30-day moving average ($12.22) and Bollinger Upper Band ($14.10) further validates the bullish momentum.

Battery Manufacturing Sector Volatile Amid EV Industry Shifts
The battery manufacturing sector remains fragmented, with Pangaea Logistics (PANL) up 0.2% as the sector leader. However, broader EV industry headwinds, including GM’s recent 1,700-worker layoffs and production pauses at Ultium Cells, highlight macroeconomic risks. AMPX’s focus on high-margin UAV and defense applications insulates it from consumer EV demand fluctuations, but rising material costs and regulatory scrutiny in energy storage could pressure margins. Investors should monitor sector-wide trends, particularly as GM’s strategic realignment signals a potential slowdown in EV battery demand.

AMPX20251121C14 and AMPX20251121C15: High-Leverage Bets on Earnings Optimism
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day average: $5.52 (well below current price)
- RSI: 51.43 (neutral, suggesting potential for upward breakout)
- MACD: 0.416 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.616)
- Bollinger Bands: Price at $13.90, near upper band ($14.10)
- K-line pattern: Short-term bullish trend confirmed by 30-day support/resistance ($12.73–$12.81)
• Trading Setup: Key resistance at $14.10 (Bollinger Upper Band) and $16.03 (52W high). A break above $14.10 could trigger a retest of the 52W high. Short-term volatility is likely to persist ahead of the November 6 earnings call.
• Top Options:
- AMPX20251121C14 (Call):
- Strike: $14, Expiry: 2025-11-21
- IV: 128.47% (elevated, reflecting high expectations)
- Delta: 0.5546 (moderate sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.0505 (rapid time decay, ideal for short-term plays)
- Gamma: 0.0903 (high sensitivity to price acceleration)
- Turnover: $114,051 (liquid, tradable)
- LVR: 8.16% (high leverage for aggressive capital efficiency)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($14.64), payoff = $14.64 - $14 = $0.64 per share. This contract offers a 12.3% return on a 5% price move, leveraging high gamma and IV.
- AMPX20251121C15 (Call):
- Strike: $15, Expiry: 2025-11-21
- IV: 131.10% (extreme, but justified by earnings hype)
- Delta: 0.4708 (balanced risk/reward)
- Theta: -0.0501 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0891 (strong price responsiveness)
- Turnover: $27,543 (adequate liquidity)
- LVR: 10.28% (highest leverage in the chain)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($14.64), payoff = $14.64 - $15 = $0 (breakeven). While less immediately profitable, this contract benefits from IV expansion if earnings exceed expectations.
• Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize AMPX20251121C14 for a 5% upside target. If earnings guidance is bullish, rotate into AMPX20251121C15 for extended gains. Watch for a breakdown below $12.54 (intraday low) to trigger stop-loss.

Backtest Amprius Technologies Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-study module that summarizes AMPX’s performance after every ≥ 13 % intraday surge (open-to-high) since 2022.Key insights • ​46 qualifying surges were identified from Sep-2022 through Oct-2025. • Over the next 1-week, median excess return vs. buy-and-hold was modest (+0.9 pp) with only 56 % positive hit-rate—statistically insignificant. • The strongest relative performance appeared around trading-day 20 (+4.6 pp vs. benchmark) but lacked statistical significance. • Result suggests that chasing AMPX immediately after a ≥ 13 % intraday spike has not offered a consistent edge.Feel free to open the module to inspect detailed day-by-day curves, win-rate tables, and event distribution.

AMPX’s Earnings Call and $14.10 Breakout: Your Next Move
AMPX’s 13.1% surge is a product of strategic UAV wins and earnings optimism, but sustainability hinges on its ability to clear $14.10 and maintain momentum through November 6. The stock’s technicals—bullish RSI, MACD divergence, and Bollinger Band breakout—favor a short-term rally, though sector-wide EV headwinds could introduce volatility. Investors should monitor the $14.10 level as a critical inflection point; a break above could reignite a push toward $16.03. Meanwhile, sector leader PANL’s 0.2% gain underscores the sector’s mixed signals. For those seeking leverage, AMPX20251121C14 offers a high-gamma, high-IV play on earnings-driven optimism. Act now: Buy AMPX20251121C14 ahead of the November 6 call, with a stop-loss at $12.54.