Amprius Technologies (AMPX) Plunges 1.4% Amid Regulatory Scrutiny and Market Volatility – What’s Next?

Summary
• Amprius Technologies (AMPX) trades at $12.49, down 1.42% intraday after opening at $12.84
• Intraday range spans $13.30 (high) to $12.41 (low), reflecting heightened volatility
• Recent news highlights $35M drone battery order and AS9100 certification for military applications
• Elevated short interest and unusual options activity signal mixed market sentiment

Amprius Technologies (AMPX) faces a turbulent session as investors grapple with conflicting signals: a $35M drone battery order and AS9100 certification for military applications contrast with rising short interest and regulatory scrutiny. The stock’s 1.42% decline masks a volatile intraday range of $0.89, driven by a surge in put options trading and mixed analyst commentary. With a dynamic P/E of -49.62 and a 52-week high of $14.07, AMPX’s near-term trajectory hinges on resolving regulatory uncertainties and capitalizing on its high-energy density battery platform.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Short-Seller Pressure Weigh on Momentum
AMPX’s intraday decline stems from a confluence of regulatory headwinds and short-seller activity. Recent news of the U.S. Army’s wearable battery pack integration with Amprius’ SiMaxx cells has been overshadowed by concerns over NYSE compliance hurdles and a 7.9% rise in short interest in August. The stock’s 1.42% drop follows a surge in put options trading, with the AMPX20251017P13 contract seeing 59 contracts traded at a 12.73% price change. Analysts note that while the $35M drone order and AS9100 certification validate technical capabilities, regulatory delays and cash-burn risks have dampened investor confidence. The stock’s 52-week low of $1.18 underscores its speculative nature, with momentum traders pivoting to defensive positions.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with AMPX20251017P13 and AMPX20251121P13
• MACD: 1.239 (above signal line 1.099), RSI: 66.52 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $14.29 (upper), $10.81 (middle), $7.33 (lower)
• 200-day MA: $4.69 (far below current price), 30-day MA: $9.66 (support zone at $7.06–$7.19)
• Key Resistance: $13.30 (intraday high), Support: $12.41 (intraday low)

AMPX’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias amid elevated volatility. The RSI at 66.52 indicates neutrality, while the MACD histogram of 0.1395 signals fading bullish momentum. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA ($4.69) as a critical floor and the 30-day MA ($9.66) for potential rebounds. Two options stand out for bearish exposure:

• AMPX20251017P13
- Strike: $13, Expiration: 2025-10-17, IV: 111.41%, Delta: -0.558, Theta: -0.011, Gamma: 0.172, Turnover: $6,446
- IV (high volatility), Delta (moderate bearish exposure), Gamma (high sensitivity to price swings)
- This put option offers leverage (10.02% ratio) and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakdown below $12.41. A 5% downside scenario (to $11.87) would yield a payoff of $1.13 per contract.

• AMPX20251121P13
- Strike: $13, Expiration: 2025-11-21, IV: 113.67%, Delta: -0.461, Theta: -0.0145, Gamma: 0.080, Turnover: $15,001
- IV (elevated), Delta (moderate bearish bias), Gamma (modest sensitivity)
- This longer-dated put provides time decay protection (theta of -0.0145) and higher leverage (5.47% ratio). A 5% drop would generate a $1.13 payoff, aligning with the stock’s 52-week low trajectory.

Aggressive bears should prioritize AMPX20251017P13 for immediate volatility capture, while AMPX20251121P13 suits those anticipating a prolonged downturn. Watch for a breakdown below $12.41 to trigger a cascade of short-covering and put buying.

Backtest Amprius Technologies Stock Performance
The event study is complete. Key takeaway: on average, AMPX rebounds about 9 % over the 30 sessions that follow a −1 % (or larger) down-day, but the advantage vs. a passive hold (≈7.5 %) is modest and not statistically significant at any horizon.Below is an interactive report where you can drill into win-rate, cumulative P&L curves, and other details.Feel free to explore the module and let me know if you’d like to adjust parameters (e.g., test a deeper drop threshold, change the look-ahead window, compare against sector peers, etc.).

AMPX at Crossroads: Regulatory Risks vs. Drone Market Tailwinds – Act Now
AMPX’s near-term outlook hinges on resolving regulatory uncertainties and executing its $35M drone battery order. While the AS9100 certification and military partnerships validate its technology, the stock’s -49.62 P/E and 4.85% turnover rate highlight financial fragility. Traders should prioritize AMPX20251017P13 for short-term bearish exposure and monitor the 200-day MA ($4.69) as a critical support level. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA), the sector leader, rose 0.99% today, signaling broader EV sector resilience. Investors must balance AMPX’s speculative potential with its cash-burn risks—position sizing and stop-losses are critical in this volatile environment.