Ampleforth Governance Token/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• Price action showed a bearish bias with multiple lower closes and a strong support area near 2.144e-05.
• RSI and MACD confirmed weakening momentum, while volume confirmed bearish continuation after 18:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands displayed moderate volatility with price remaining near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions.

Ampleforth Governance Token/Bitcoin (FORTHBTC) opened at 2.147e-05 on 2025-11-07 12:00 ET, reached a high of 2.196e-05, and a low of 2.108e-05, closing at 2.106e-05 by 2025-11-08 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 5,906.39, and turnover amounted to 131.16 BTC-equivalent.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish bias throughout the session, with a notable breakdown below 2.16e-05. A key support level appears at 2.144e-05, which held on multiple occasions. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 2.17e-05 during early evening trading (ET), confirming a shift in sentiment. No significant bullish patterns emerged, with most candlesticks closing below their open.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with price below both, reinforcing a bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sits near 2.175e-05, forming a critical level to watch for further breakdowns.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line moving lower, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend. RSI oscillated between 25 and 40, signaling oversold conditions during the overnight hours. Price may find a temporary floor near RSI 30, but sustained bearish momentum suggests further downward movement.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained moderate throughout the 24-hour period. Price traded near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, reinforcing oversold conditions. A contraction in band width during the overnight hours hinted at potential for a larger move, which may follow once volume increases.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly between 20:00 and 22:00 ET, confirming bearish continuation below key levels. Turnover was highest during this period, with price dipping as low as 2.108e-05. Price and turnover aligned on the bearish side, with no divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested key Fibonacci levels such as 2.16e-05 (61.8% retrace of the earlier bearish move) and found rejection. On the daily chart, a breakdown below 2.16e-05 may target 2.14e-05, aligning with 61.8% retracement from a recent bullish swing.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern detected around 2.17e-05 at 18:45 ET appears to have acted as a valid sell signal. This pattern, occurring after a brief uptrend, suggests a potential reversal point. A 3-day sell strategy following this signal may align with the observed 4.6% decline in price over the next 72 hours, confirming the pattern’s predictive power in this context. Traders should be cautious of false signals during periods of low volume and consider using stop-loss orders at the prior session’s close to manage risk effectively.