Ampleforth Governance Token/Bitcoin Market Overview

• FORTHBTC fell by 0.43% over 24 hours, closing near a key support level at 2.286e-05.
• Volatility expanded midday, with a 200-basis-point range and strong volume at 2.293e-05.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 2.293e-05, signaling a potential reversal from bullish to bearish momentum.
• RSI dipped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions, while MACD remained in negative territory, confirming bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed price consolidation near the lower band, hinting at a potential bounce or breakdown.

FORTHBTC opened at 2.316e-05 on 2025-09-16 at 16:00 ET and closed at 2.301e-05 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 2.320e-05 and a low of 2.275e-05. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 1,855.82 units, while notional turnover was $42.87 (calculated using average price). The pair shows a bearish bias amid consolidating volatility and key support testing.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart for FORTHBTC shows a bearish bias, with key support levels at 2.286e-05 and 2.275e-05, both of which have been tested multiple times. Resistance levels at 2.293e-05 and 2.301e-05 show failed attempts to break above during midday trading. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the candle at 2025-09-17 03:1500, suggesting a short-term reversal after a brief attempt to rally. A doji candle at 2025-09-17 02:0000 also hints at indecision in the market during early morning hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trend downward, indicating sustained bearish momentum. Price remains below both, reinforcing the downward bias. The 50-period SMA crossed below the 100-period SMA on several occasions during the 24-hour period, suggesting a bearish crossover. Daily chart moving averages (50/100/200) also confirm a broader bearish trend, with price staying beneath all three.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remains in negative territory, with a bearish crossover occurring in the morning as bearish momentum accelerated. RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions and a potential bounce or reversal in the near term. However, RSI has not shown a strong rebound above 40, suggesting that bearish pressure may persist. The divergence between MACD and RSI may signal a short-term correction, but not a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the midday hours as price moved within a 200-basis-point range. Price tested the lower Bollinger Band at 2.275e-05 and rebounded toward the middle band. This suggests a potential short-term consolidation phase or a test of the support level. A break below the lower band could signal an acceleration in bearish momentum, while a rebound above the middle band may indicate a temporary correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key price levels, particularly during the midday hours at 2.293e-05 and late evening at 2.286e-05. These spikes suggest significant selling pressure during those periods. Notional turnover also increased during these volume spikes, confirming the bearish action. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the early morning hours when volume dropped despite a price drop, suggesting reduced conviction in the downward move at that time.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 15-minute swing from 2.320e-05 to 2.275e-05 show price testing the 61.8% level at 2.286e-05. This level was reached multiple times during the 24-hour period, indicating a strong support zone. A breakdown below 2.275e-05 would trigger a move toward the 100% level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 2.293e-05 was tested but failed to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration uses a combination of RSI oversold conditions and Fibonacci support levels to identify potential reversal points in FORTHBTC. When RSI dips below 30 and price nears a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the strategy initiates a long position with a stop loss just below the immediate support. Over the 24-hour period, this would have triggered a long entry near 2.286e-05, which is currently being tested. The success of the strategy depends on whether price finds support at that level and rebounds, confirming a short-term reversal.