Ampleforth Governance Token/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price for FORTHBTC rose from 2.382e-05 to 2.411e-05 before retracing to close near 2.363e-05.
• A bullish breakout attempt above 2.4e-05 was followed by a bearish reversal into the session close.
• Volatility surged in the overnight session, with over $50k in turnover during the 06:00–07:30 ET window.
• MACD signaled a fading bullish momentum, while RSI suggested overbought levels in early trading.
• Bollinger Bands showed a mid-session contraction, suggesting potential for a directional move.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21, Ampleforth Governance Token/Bitcoin (FORTHBTC) opened at 2.382e-05, rising to a high of 2.411e-05 before falling to a low of 2.363e-05 and closing at 2.363e-05 by 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,709.23 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $41.50 USD (assuming a BTC price of $30,000 for turnover estimation). The session was marked by a sharp reversal from a morning high and a consolidation phase near the lower end of the range.

The price action displayed a clear bullish impulse early in the session, with a strong move above 2.4e-05, a level that had previously acted as resistance. However, the rally was met with selling pressure and failed to hold above that level for long. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around the 06:15–06:45 ET window, confirming the reversal. The price then tested key support levels at 2.395e-05 and 2.38e-05 before breaking below the 2.38e-05 threshold, indicating weakening demand. The session closed with a retest of the 2.363e-05 level, which may act as a near-term support if the trend continues lower.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish bias with the price breaking below key support levels after a failed attempt to retest 2.4e-05. A series of lower highs and lower lows since the 2.411e-05 high suggests that the market is struggling to find buyers at higher levels. The bearish engulfing pattern near 2.4e-05 signals a likely continuation of the downward trend. Additionally, the price has formed a descending triangle, with the upper boundary at 2.4e-05 and the lower boundary at 2.363e-05, which may provide a target for further downside should the trend continue.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the current price, indicating a bearish bias. The price has remained below the 50-period MA since breaking below 2.4e-05, suggesting that the short-term trend is firmly bearish. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 2.39e-05, while the 200-period MA is at 2.38e-05. The price is currently below both, reinforcing the bearish outlook and the potential for further support tests.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the bearish reversal phase, confirming the weakening bullish momentum. The histogram has been shrinking in size since the morning high, indicating that the bearish pressure is increasing. The RSI hit overbought levels in the early part of the session, peaking at 75, and has since fallen to around 30, suggesting oversold conditions. However, the lack of a corresponding rebound in price raises concerns about further weakness in the near term.

The RSI divergence and MACD bearish crossover suggest a continuation of the downward trend in the near term. If the price fails to hold above 2.363e-05, the next support level may be found near 2.35e-05.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the mid-session, indicating a period of consolidation. The narrowing of the bands suggests a potential breakout or breakdown. However, the price failed to hold above the upper band and instead closed near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The current price of 2.363e-05 is now trading close to the lower band, which may signal an oversold condition and a potential bounce, though without a clear breakout above the midline, further downside remains likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early part of the session as the price moved above 2.4e-05, confirming the bullish breakout. However, volume dropped off during the bearish reversal phase, which is a bearish divergence. The largest volume occurred in the 06:15–06:45 ET window, where the price formed a bearish engulfing pattern. This divergence between volume and price suggests that the move lower may not be fully supported, but the lack of follow-through buying has allowed the bearish trend to continue.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute move from 2.363e-05 to 2.411e-05 shows key levels at 38.2% (2.395e-05) and 61.8% (2.38e-05). The price tested both levels before breaking below the 2.38e-05 threshold. This suggests that the 2.363e-05 level is a critical support area. If the price breaks below this level, the next Fibonacci target could be around 2.35e-05.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions when the price breaks below a 15-minute 50-period moving average and the RSI falls below 40, with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period MA. A take-profit target is set at the next Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 2.35e-05). Given the current bearish momentum and the RSI’s indication of oversold conditions without a strong rebound, this strategy aligns with the recent price action. However, caution is advised as divergence between volume and price may suggest that the current move could face resistance before reaching the full downside target.