Ampleforth Governance Token/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price drifted lower on low volume, forming bearish consolidation patterns.
• MACD showed bearish divergence, while RSI hovered near oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded slightly during a late-night rally before fading toward close.
• Turnover remained subdued, lacking confirmation of significant institutional involvement.

Ampleforth Governance Token/Bitcoin (FORTHBTC) opened at 2.398e-05 on 2025-09-09 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 2.421e-05 and a low of 2.381e-05 before closing at 2.399e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-10. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,543.69 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 0.0367 BTC.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours featured a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming a bearish descending pattern. A key support level emerged around 2.392e-05, where price found repeated buying interest. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 2025-09-09 at 17:00 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. A doji formed near 2.409e-05 during the early morning hours, signaling indecision and potentially signaling a near-term bottom.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs remained bearish, with the 20-period SMA flattening in the final hours as the price stabilized. On the daily chart, FORTHBTC is below all major moving averages, including the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias and suggesting continued pressure for further declines in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26 MACD line crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The MACD histogram showed a moderate expansion in bearish strength, especially during the early morning and late afternoon hours. RSI dipped to 31-34 during the final hours, indicating oversold territory but failing to trigger a rebound, suggesting weak conviction in the downside move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded moderately during the late-night hours, with a brief breach above the upper band around 2.421e-05. This was followed by a retest of the lower band at 2.392e-05, where price found support and reversed. The narrowing of the bands during midday signaled a potential reversal, which partially materialized with a small rebound in the final hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained generally subdued, with only a few spikes, most notably during the late-night rally when trading picked up slightly. Notional turnover also remained low, with no significant divergence between volume and price movement. The lack of volume during key price levels suggests limited conviction in both bullish and bearish moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 2.421e-05 to 2.381e-05, the 38.2% level at 2.401e-05 and 61.8% at 2.391e-05 were both tested. The 61.8% level held as support, preventing further downward momentum. This suggests that a bounce may be in play if the pair can hold above this level in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtesting strategy would involve a mean-reversion approach triggered by a RSI cross below 30 and a doji forming near the lower Bollinger Band. This could be combined with a Fibonacci-based entry at the 61.8% level, with a stop-loss placed below the next key support at 2.381e-05. A take-profit target could be set at the 38.2% retracement at 2.401e-05, leveraging the observed resistance in the prior 24-hour period. Such a setup would test whether the oversold condition and bearish exhaustion at the 61.8% level could lead to a short-term rebound.