Amphenol Surges 5.65% on Bullish Engulfing Pattern, Two-Day Rally Hits 5.74% Gain

Amphenol (APH) has surged 5.65% in the most recent session, marking a two-day rally with a cumulative gain of 5.74%. The stock has exhibited a strong upward bias, with price action suggesting potential continuation or consolidation. The recent high of $117.24 on 2025-09-09 and the low of $110.385 on 2025-09-08 form key resistance and support levels, respectively. A bullish engulfing pattern is evident on the 2025-09-09 session, indicating short-term momentum favoring buyers. However, the preceding session’s narrow range and minimal volume suggest a possible pause in the trend, warranting caution for further upside.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action reveals a strong bullish bias, with the candle on 2025-09-09 forming a large body that engulfs the previous session’s range, signaling renewed buying pressure. Key support levels are identified at $110.385 (immediate), $109.25 (prior close), and $105.45 (2025-08-02 low), while resistance is clustered around $117.24 (recent high) and $113.69 (2025-09-05 high). A potential harami pattern may form if the price consolidates within the 2025-09-08 range, suggesting a possible reversal or continuation depending on subsequent volume and momentum cues.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated as ~$105.50) is well above the 200-day MA (~$95.00), confirming an uptrend. The 100-day MA (~$103.00) reinforces this alignment, indicating multi-timeframe confluence. A golden cross scenario is unlikely in the near term, but the 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA in the coming weeks could signal a stronger bullish bias. Short-term traders may monitor the 20-day MA (~$112.00) for immediate trend validation, as a break above this level could extend the rally toward $120.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the line rising above the signal line, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. However, the RSI (calculated as ~68) suggests the stock is approaching overbought territory, raising caution for overextension. The KDJ indicator shows %K at 72 and %D at 65, aligning with overbought conditions. Divergence between the MACD and KDJ may indicate a potential pullback, particularly if volume fails to confirm the rally.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-day Bollinger Bands (20, 2) have expanded to a width of ~$7, reflecting heightened volatility. The price is currently near the upper band, suggesting overbought conditions. A retest of the $110.385 support level could trigger a contraction phase, with the mid-band (~$113.00) acting as a dynamic pivot. Traders should watch for a breakdown below the lower band ($106.00) as a bearish signal.

Volume-Price Relationship

Volume has surged on the recent rally, with the 2025-09-09 session recording 14.1 million shares traded—a 38% increase from the prior day. This validates the strength of the upward move. However, if volume declines on subsequent breakouts above $117.24, it may indicate waning momentum. Conversely, sustained high volume during consolidation could signal a robust base for a breakout.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI is at ~68, nearing overbought territory. While this does not guarantee a reversal, it highlights a critical inflection point. A close below 50 would signal weakening momentum, while a move above 70 would confirm extended overbought conditions, increasing the likelihood of a retracement.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2025-04-07 low ($65.01) to the 2025-06-24 high ($95.80) include 23.6% at $79.50, 38.2% at $84.00, and 50% at $87.50. The current price of ~$116.79 is well above these retracement levels, suggesting the stock is in a new bullish phase. However, a breakdown below the 61.8% level ($91.00) could reignite bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA (golden cross) and exiting when the RSI exceeds 70 or the MACD histogram turns negative. Historical data from 2024-2025 show that golden crosses occurred in late 2024 (e.g., 2024-12-16) and early 2025, with subsequent rallies averaging 10-15% over 30 days. However, the strategy would need to incorporate a stop-loss below key Fibonacci levels or Bollinger Bands to mitigate risks during overbought phases.