Amphenol (APH) Surges 5.09% on Bullish Hammer Pattern and MA Crossover as RSI Hits 78

Amphenol (APH) Technical Analysis

Candlestick Theory

Amphenol’s recent price action reveals a bullish reversal pattern, with the stock surging 5.09% on the most recent session, closing at $154.22. The prior week featured a bearish candle (1/14: -1.49%) followed by a strong green candle (1/15: +5.09%), forming a potential hammer pattern near the $144.38 support level. Key support levels are identified at $135.14 (December 31 low) and $129.24 (December 12 low), while resistance aligns with the $148.69 (January 14 high) and $149.28 (January 13 high). The recent rally suggests a short-term bullish bias, with the $154.22 close potentially establishing a new near-term resistance.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated from mid-January to mid-February data) is estimated at $139.50, rising above the 200-day MA ($132.50), indicating a bullish crossover. The 100-day MA (~$136.00) further supports the upward trend. However, the 200-day MA remains below the current price, suggesting medium-term strength. A break above the 50-day MA could confirm momentum, while a close below the 100-day MA might trigger a retest of the $135.14 support. The confluence of short-term MAs above long-term ones reinforces the bullish case.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram (12/26) has turned positive, with the line crossing above the signal line in early January, signaling growing bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator (14-period) shows the %K line at 82 and %D at 75, indicating overbought conditions. While this may hint at a near-term pullback, the KDJ’s alignment with the MACD’s upward trend suggests the rally could persist. A bearish divergence in the KDJ (e.g., %K peaking while price rises) would raise caution, but current readings remain in sync with the bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening as the price approached the upper band ($156.28 high on 1/15). This suggests a potential breakout scenario, supported by the 1/15 close near the upper band. The bands were narrower in late December, indicating a period of consolidation before the recent surge. Price positioning near the upper band aligns with the overbought RSI reading, but sustained volatility could extend the move higher.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked to 10.08 million shares on 1/15, validating the bullish price surge. Volume has generally increased with higher prices over the past three weeks, reinforcing the sustainability of the uptrend. However, a divergence may emerge if volume declines while price continues to rise, which could signal weakening conviction. The recent volume spike, coupled with the 1/15 close, suggests strong institutional buying, though retail participation remains to be confirmed.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at ~78, indicating overbought territory. While this warns of potential exhaustion, the RSI’s upward trajectory mirrors the MACD and KDJ, suggesting the rally is not yet exhausted. A close below 70 would reduce overbought pressure, but a break above 80 could trigger a deeper correction. The RSI’s alignment with the price action highlights a high-probability continuation case, albeit with elevated risk of a pullback.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels between the December 2025 low ($95.19) and January 2026 high ($156.28), key retracement levels are:

- 23.6%: ~$133.00

- 38.2%: ~$126.50

- 50%: ~$125.70

The current price ($154.22) sits above the 23.6% level, indicating a strong bullish trend. A breakdown below $133.00 could target the 38.2% and 50% levels, while a continuation above $156.28 would suggest a new leg higher.