AMGN Trading Above 50 & 200-Day SMA: How to Play the Stock?

Amgen AMGN stock has been consistently trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) since early January.

The 50-day moving average is a short-term indicator, while the 200-day moving average is a longer-term indicator. When the 50-day moving average exceeds the 200-day moving average on a stock’s price chart, it's known as a "golden cross," a signal of a prolonged upward trend.

The crossover indicates that the stock's recent price performance has been stronger than its longer-term performance. This was backed by Amgen’s strong earnings results and an optimistic outlook for 2026, supported by excitement around its obesity and cardiometabolic pipeline.

AMGN stock's most recent golden cross occurred around early November. The 50-day SMA has been higher than the 200-day SMA since then, a positive sign for the stock’s future gains.

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Let’s understand Amgen’s strengths and weaknesses to better analyze how to play the stock as it has been trading above this important support level.

Key Drugs & New Products Driving AMGN’s Top Line

Amgen markets a range of drugs across oncology, cardiovascular, bone health, immunology and other areas. Amgen’s revenues rose 10% to $36.8 billion in 2025, driven by growing patient demand for its innovative medicines.

Amgen’s key medicines like Repatha, Evenity, Uplizna and Blincyto and new drugs like Tavneos and Tezspire are driving the top line. New biosimilar launches are contributing to top-line growth as well. These drugs are offsetting declining revenues from oncology biosimilars and mature products such as Enbrel. Fourteen of Amgen’s products now generate more than $1 billion in annual sales, reducing dependence on any single product.

Amgen is evaluating Kyprolis, Otezla, Nplate, Repatha, Lumakras, Tezspire, Uplizna and Blincyto for additional indications. Approval for the expanded use of these drugs can potentially drive further top-line growth. Uplizna was approved for myasthenia gravis in the United States in December 2025 and for IgG4-related disease in April 2025, while Tezspire was approved in the United States for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps in October 2025.

AMGN’s Interesting Pipeline

Amgen has several key pipeline assets, with a primary focus on the obesity candidate, MariTide.

The company is developing MariTide, a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor, as a single dose in a convenient autoinjector device with a monthly and possibly less frequent dosing. This key feature differentiates it from Eli Lilly LLY and Novo Nordisk’s NVO popular GLP-1-based obesity drugs, Zepbound and Wegovy, which are weekly injections. Amgen has six global phase III studies underway with MariTide in obesity, type II diabetes and other obesity-related conditions.

In clinical studies, MariTide has shown predictable and sustained weight loss and a meaningful impact on cardiometabolic parameters.

Several data readouts are expected over the next six to 12 months, which could be important catalysts for the stock.

AMGN’s Strong New Biosimilars Portfolio

Amgen has successfully launched biosimilars of J&J’s JNJ Stelara (Wezlana), Alexion’s Soliris (Bekemv) and Regeneron’s Eylea (Pavblu) in the past couple of years

In 2025, its biosimilar products generated impressive sales of around $3 billion, up 37% year over year. Since the first launch in 2018, Amgen’s biosimilars have delivered more than $13 billion in sales, significantly contributing to top-line growth and generating meaningful cash flows.

Phase III studies are ongoing to evaluate biosimilar versions of Bristol-Myers’ Opdivo (ABP 206), Merck’s Keytruda (ABP 234) and Roche’s Ocrevus (ABP 692).

Amgen’s new biosimilar launches will play a key role in mitigating the impact of Amgen’s loss of exclusivity (LOE) over the next few years.

AMGN’s Key Drugs Prolia & Xgeva’s LOE & Other Headwinds

Patents for Amgen’s best-selling drugs, Prolia and Xgeva, expired in February 2025 in the United States, while the same expired in some European countries in November 2025. Sales of these best-selling drugs are expected to decline significantly in 2026 following the global launch of several biosimilars.

Prolia, Xgeva, Enbrel and Otezla have already lost or are expected to lose exclusivity in a couple of years. These products made up around 30% of 2025 product revenues for Amgen.

The Medicare Part D redesign and provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as well as the 340B Program, are affecting and are likely to continue to adversely impact sales of some drugs. Enbrel and Otezla have been selected by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for Medicare Part D price setting beginning in 2026 and 2027, respectively, which can result in further declines in net selling prices of these drugs.

Pricing headwinds and competitive pressure are hurting sales of many products. Weaknesses in key brands like Otezla and Lumakras could create revenue headwinds.

Some recent drug-related/pipeline setbacks have raised concerns. Recently, Amgen’s subsidiary, ChemoCentryx, voluntarily withdrew Tavneos from the U.S. market at the FDA’s request after the agency raised concerns about how primary endpoint data for nine patients were re-adjudicated in its pivotal study. The FDA also cited hepatotoxicity risk in reassessing the drug’s overall benefit-risk profile.

Also, Amgen announced that it will not seek regulatory approval for bemarituzumab in first-line gastric cancer following results from the phase III FORTITUDE-101 and FORTITUDE-102 studies.

AMGN’s Price, Valuation & Estimates

Amgen’s shares have risen 11.6% over the past year compared with an increase of 8.0% for the industry.

AMGN Stock Outperforms Industry

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From a valuation standpoint, Amgen is reasonably priced. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 15.67 forward earnings, which is lower than 17.25 for the industry. The stock is, however, trading above its five-year mean of 13.81.

AMGN Stock Valuation

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has risen from $21.71 to $22.22 per share for 2026 over the past 60 days. For 2027, the consensus mark for earnings has increased from $22.30 to $23.24 per share over the same time frame.

AMGN’s Estimate Movement

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Stay Invested in AMGN Stock

After analyzing the factors discussed above, we believe the company is well placed to maintain long-term revenue growth. Amgen expects key drugs like Repatha, Evenity, Tezspire and oncology and rare disease drugs, as well as biosimilars, to drive top-line growth in 2026, partially offsetting biosimilar erosion of Prolia/Xgeva, price declines for some products and increases in 340B program utilization.

Amgen has also invested several billion dollars in M&A deals over the last decade, including platform and technology-related deals as well as acquisitions of marketed products.

Along with these factors, Amgen’s consistently rising estimates, reasonable valuation, and solid stock price appreciation provide sufficient reason for investors to remain invested in this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock for now. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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