Amgen Surges 7.95% on Bullish Engulfing and Golden Cross Momentum

Amgen (AMGN) has surged 7.81% in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of gains with a cumulative 7.95% rise. The stock’s recent performance suggests strong bullish momentum, with price action reflecting a potential breakout from a key consolidation phase. This sets the stage for a technical analysis to evaluate the sustainability of the rally and identify potential reversal points.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action features a bullish engulfing pattern on the two-day chart, with the latest session’s close at $319.86 surpassing the previous high of $296.7. Key support levels are identified at $292.12 (October 3) and $288.00 (October 30), while resistance is likely to test $322.98 (November 5 high). A breakdown below $292.12 could trigger a retest of the October 30 low at $288.00, whereas a sustained close above $322.98 may signal a continuation of the upward trend.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approximately $295–$300) currently sits below the 200-day MA ($290–$295), indicating a long-term bullish bias. However, the 100-day MA ($295–$300) has crossed above the 200-day MA, forming a golden cross. Short-term momentum is reinforced by the 50-day MA aligning with the 100-day MA, suggesting a potential acceleration in price. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA as a critical threshold; a break above it would strengthen the case for a sustained uptrend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded positively, with the line crossing above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator (Stochastic RSI) shows overbought conditions, with K at 85 and D at 80, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the divergence between the MACD’s strength and the KDJ’s overbought reading may indicate a continuation of the rally if volume remains robust.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased, with the bands widening as price approaches the upper band ($322.98). This contraction-expansion pattern suggests heightened buying pressure. If price closes above the upper band, it could trigger a breakout, but a retest of the middle band ($300–$310) may act as a magnet for further consolidation.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged in the past two sessions, with the most recent session’s volume (5.49 million shares) exceeding the 30-day average. This validates the price strength and suggests institutional participation. However, a decline in volume during follow-through rallies could signal weakening conviction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI has entered overbought territory (>70), reflecting the 7.81% single-session gain. While this warns of potential short-term corrections, the RSI’s failure to form lower highs despite the sharp rise implies continued demand. A drop below 50 would invalidate the bullish case, but a rebound above 70 may prolong the uptrend.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the October 30 low ($288.00) to the November 5 high ($322.98) include 38.2% at $305.50 and 61.8% at $310.50. A pullback to the 38.2% level could find support, while a break below 50% ($295.50) would target the October 3 low at $292.12.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the MACD golden cross strategy from 2022 to 2025 reveals mixed results. Two successful trades occurred in December 2023 and November 2025, yielding average returns of +3.4%, while a failed trade in December 2024 resulted in a -1.0% loss. The strategy’s 66.7% success rate highlights its potential but underscores the need for additional filters, such as volume confirmation or RSI divergence, to improve robustness. Integrating Fibonacci retracement levels as stop-loss targets could mitigate risk in volatile biotech sectors.