Amgen Plummets 5.4% Amid MariTide Hype: Can This Biotech Giant Rebound?

Summary
• Amgen’s shares nosedive 5.4% intraday to $283.85, erasing $16.23 from its previous close
• Q2 earnings beat estimates with $6.02 EPS and $9.18B revenue, yet investors fixate on MariTide’s clinical timeline
• Options volatility surges as 2025-08-15 put options at $285 strike see 66.4% price change

Amgen’s stock is in freefall despite a stellar Q2 earnings report, driven by a 13% volume surge in key drugs like Evenity and Repatha. However, the market’s fixation on MariTide’s Phase 2 diabetes trial readout in Q4 2025 has overshadowed short-term financial strength. With the stock trading below its 200-day moving average of $291.06 and Bollinger Bands tightening, the biotech giant faces a critical juncture as investors weigh near-term biosimilar pressures against long-term obesity drug potential.

MariTide Obsession Overshadows Earnings Triumph
Despite Amgen’s Q2 adjusted earnings of $6.02/share (up 21% YoY) and $9.18B revenue (up 9% YoY), the stock collapsed 5.4% as investors fixated on MariTide’s clinical timeline. The experimental GIPR/GLP-1 drug, with its monthly dosing advantage over competitors, remains the double-edged sword: while Phase 2 diabetes data is due in Q4 2025, William Blair analyst Matt Phipps highlighted that the ongoing Phase 2 chronic weight management study doesn’t address tolerability concerns. This uncertainty has triggered a risk-off trade, with the stock plunging below its 52-week low of $253.30 as biosimilar erosion of Prolia/Xgeva sales looms in H2 2025.

Pharma Sector Turbulence: J&J Gains While Biotech ETFs Bleed
While Amgen’s peers face sector-wide headwinds, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) bucked the trend with a 0.44% intraday gain, outperforming the -1.84% decline in the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB). The VanEck Biotech ETF (BBH) fell 2.4%, reflecting broader biotech sector jitters amid Trump-era tariff threats and biosimilar competition. Amgen’s 5.4% drop contrasts with J&J’s resilience, underscoring the market’s differentiation between diversified pharma giants and biotech innovators facing clinical and regulatory risks.

Bearish Put Plays and ETF Diversification in a Volatile Biotech Climate
• 200-day average: $291.06 (below current price)
• RSI: 51.15 (neutral)
• MACD: 2.54 (bullish divergence with price)
• Bollinger Bands: $290.42–$309.57 (price near lower band)

Amgen’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias despite long-term range-bound positioning. The stock is testing key support at $282.50 (lower Bollinger Band) and faces resistance at $290.42 (middle Bollinger Band). With the Invesco Biotechnology ETF (IBB) down 1.84%, investors should hedge against sector-wide declines while targeting high-leverage options. The VanEck Biotech ETF (BBH) at $157.36 (-2.4%) offers a diversified play, but aggressive traders should focus on the options chain:

Top Put Option: AMGN20250815P285
• Strike: $285 | Expiration: 2025-08-15 | IV: 21.04% | Leverage: 67.55% | Delta: -0.513 | Theta: -0.007 | Gamma: 0.040 | Turnover: 19,248
• IV (21.04%): Reflects moderate volatility expectations
• Leverage (67.55%): Amplifies downside potential
• Delta (-0.513): Sensitive to mid-range price moves
• Gamma (0.040): High sensitivity to price acceleration
• Turnover (19,248): Strong liquidity for entry/exit
Payoff Calculation: At 5% downside (target $269.66), payoff = max(0, $285 - $269.66) = $15.34 per share. This contract offers a 54% return on a $15.34 gain if Amgen breaks below $285.

Top Put Option: AMGN20250815P280
• Strike: $280 | Expiration: 2025-08-15 | IV: 23.31% | Leverage: 115.61% | Delta: -0.333 | Theta: -0.077 | Gamma: 0.033 | Turnover: 24,850
• IV (23.31%): Slightly elevated volatility
• Leverage (115.61%): High reward for aggressive bears
• Delta (-0.333): Moderate sensitivity to price drops
• Gamma (0.033): Responsive to volatility shifts
• Turnover (24,850): Deep liquidity
Payoff Calculation: At 5% downside (target $269.66), payoff = max(0, $280 - $269.66) = $10.34 per share. This contract offers a 91% return on a $10.34 gain if Amgen falls below $280.

Trading Setup: With RSI at 51.15 and MACD divergence, short-term bears should target the $285 put for a 54% return if Amgen breaks below $285. Aggressive traders may layer in the $280 put for 91% upside if the stock accelerates lower. The ProShares Ultra NASDAQ Biotechnology (BIB) at $49.70 (-3.53%) offers a leveraged ETF play, but its -3.53% drop mirrors biotech sector fragility.

Backtest Amgen Stock Performance
The performance of AMGN after a -5% intraday plunge has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data reveals that the 3-day win rate is 48.99%, the 10-day win rate is 51.85%, and the 30-day win rate is 56.57%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such a plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.39%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for recovery and even surpassing the previous day's closing price.

MariTide’s Timeline Will Define Amgen’s Trajectory—Act Now
Amgen’s 5.4% intraday plunge reflects a market torn between near-term biosimilar pressures and long-term MariTide optimism. With the stock trading below its 200-day average and Bollinger Bands constricting, the critical inflection point lies in Q4 2025 diabetes trial data. Investors should prioritize the AMGN20250815P285 put for a 54% return if the stock breaks below $285, while monitoring Johnson & Johnson’s 0.44% gain as a sector benchmark. The VanEck Biotech ETF (BBH) at -2.4% underscores sector-wide fragility, but Amgen’s MariTide narrative offers asymmetric upside if clinical data meets expectations. Watch for a breakdown below $282.50 or a surge in MariTide-related news—either could trigger a reversal.