Amgen's MariTide: Can It Muscle In on the Obesity Drug Market?

The obesity drug race is heating up, and Amgen's experimental therapy MariTide is the underdog trying to steal the spotlight from market leaders like Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy. Let's dive into whether Amgen's stock (AMGN) is worth betting on—or if investors should steer clear of this crowded battleground.

The Obesity Market: A Gold Mine with Landmines

The global obesity crisis is a $100 billion opportunity. Zepbound, with its 20% average weight loss in head-to-head trials against Wegovy, is currently the gold standard. But Amgen's MariTide is aiming to carve its own niche. Here's why investors should pay attention:

MariTide's Strengths: Monthly Dosing & Cardiometabolic Benefits

• Monthly injections vs. weekly shots: Unlike Wegovy's weekly injections, MariTide's convenience is a selling point. Investors should remember: convenience drives adherence.
• Dual mechanism: MariTide's unique approach—blocking GIP (a hunger hormone) while stimulating GLP-1 (which suppresses appetite)—appears to prevent the weight-loss plateau seen in other drugs. In Phase 2, non-diabetic patients hit ~20% weight loss at 52 weeks, with no plateau. For diabetics, it's ~17%, while slashing HbA1c by 2.2 points.
• Cardiometabolic wins: Beyond weight loss, MariTide reduced triglycerides, blood pressure, and inflammation markers (hs-CRP). This could expand its market beyond obesity to heart disease patients—a huge untapped audience.

The Elephant in the Room: The 25% Benchmark

Investors are skeptical because MariTide's Phase 2 results just miss the coveted 25% weight-loss threshold. Only ~14% of patients hit this mark, versus Zepbound's 31.6% in the same timeframe. But here's the catch: not all patients need to hit 25% to matter.
- A 20% average weight loss still qualifies as clinically meaningful.
- MariTide's lack of a plateau suggests sustained results beyond 52 weeks. Phase 3 trials (starting in late 2024) will test this.
- Doctors and patients may prioritize long-term maintenance over a one-time 25% drop.

Risks: Side Effects, Pricing, and Regulatory Hurdles

• GI side effects: Nausea and vomiting sent 11% of Phase 2 patients packing. While manageable via dose escalation, this could crimp real-world uptake.
• Pricing wars: Zepbound and Wegovy already face insurer pushback over $1,500/month prices. Can Amgen justify similar pricing if it's not clearly better?
• Regulatory red tape: Novo's dual-agonist cagrisema (in Phase 3) could leapfrog MariTide. Plus, the FDA may demand cardiovascular outcome trials—a years-long process.

The Bottom Line: Buy the Dip, or Bail?

Amgen's stock is caught in a tug-of-war. On one hand, MariTide's Phase 2 data is solid but not revolutionary—it's no Zepbound. On the other, its monthly dosing and metabolic benefits could carve a niche.

Investment Takeaway:
- Hold for now, but keep a close eye on Phase 3 (data expected in 2025). If MariTide hits ≥25% weight loss in 30% of patients, AMGN could soar.
- Beware of valuation: Amgen's forward P/E of ~15x is reasonable, but competition is brutal. A misstep in trials or pricing could trigger a selloff.

Final Call:

MariTide isn't a game-changer yet, but it's a credible contender. If you're bullish on obesity drugs, AMGN is worth owning—but size your position carefully. Wait for Phase 3 clarity before going all-in.

Action Plan:
- Buy if AMGN dips below $200 (current price ~$220) on trial delays or market selloffs.
- Sell if Phase 3 misses 20% weight loss in non-diabetic patients or if pricing backlash erupts.

The obesity drug race isn't over—yet. But Amgen's MariTide has the tools to stay in the game. Just don't bet the farm until the finish line.