Amgen's $385 Scotiabank Target: Pipeline Hope Meets a Hold Rating

Scotiabank's higher target still sits inside a cautious Wall Street setup

Scotiabank maintained a Buy rating on Amgen and raised its target to $385. Even so, the broader analyst picture remains mixed: Amgen still has a Hold consensus across 30 recent ratings, and the average target of $357 implies about 8.6% downside from the current price. That tells you the market still sees Amgen as a transition story, not an easy conviction trade.

Why investors are waiting for proof

The recent 4.5% post-earnings jump shows investors are willing to reward clarity, but only after they see it. The key question is no longer just whether Amgen can defend its current business. It is whether MariTide can start to look like a credible next growth engine.

That is why one more bullish target has not changed the tone of the stock. Until the pipeline delivers more operating confirmation, a higher price target is only part of the story.

Portfolio breadth is improving the business case

Amgen's core thesis has not changed: investors are less willing to fund a transition while the old cash engine weakens. The important change is that other parts of the business are starting to shoulder more of the load before the new pipeline is fully proven.

The six key growth drivers are doing more of the work

In Q1, Amgen's six key growth drivers generated $5.6 billion in sales. That group grew 24% year over year and accounted for nearly 70% of total product sales. More importantly, operating income also rose 24% to $2.91 billion, while operating margin improved to 34% from 29% a year earlier.

That matters because it is not just a top-line story. The expanding part of the business is helping support margins even as Amgen keeps investing in the next stage of growth.

R&D is rising alongside the healthier earnings base

R&D spending increased 16% in Q1, with more resources directed at late-stage MariTide, IMDELLTRA, and Olpasiran. That makes the transition argument more credible: Amgen is not asking investors to imagine a funding bridge. The stronger core business is helping pay for it.

There is also a useful proof point outside obesity. The FDA approved UPLIZNA for the treatment of generalized myasthenia gravis, or gMG, while bulls note that recent launches have exceeded expectations and helped lift long-term revenue estimates for other products. That does not resolve the debate, but it does add another layer of support to the bull case.

The stock still looks like a show-me setup

AMGN is still in the middle of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. That is constructive, but it does not suggest full confidence. It suggests investors are willing to stay engaged while they wait for clearer proof.

Watch these items next: - whether the six key growth drivers keep growing faster than the company as a whole - whether operating margin holds near 34% as R&D spending rises - whether approvals and launches keep broadening the earnings base - whether MariTide, IMDELLTRA, and Olpasiran keep translating into stronger long-term estimates

MariTide is still the main multiple driver

MariTide is the only Amgen asset in the current window that could change the valuation story, not just the quarterly story. Phase 2 obesity data showed up to 20% weight loss over 52 weeks with no clear plateau, and management said the drug appeared effective with monthly or even quarterly dosing. If those early signals hold, obesity could move from pipeline hope to a meaningful part of the business.

Why analyst targets still span such a wide range

The market is split because hope and proof are still separate issues. Amgen's price targets span from $200 to $427, which reflects a debate over timing and durability as much as possibility. Bears think the obesity upside is still too far out to justify paying up today. Bulls think the market may be underestimating the value of a potentially less inconvenient obesity treatment.

That is why MariTide matters now. If the program keeps advancing cleanly, investors may assign more value before the evidence is complete. If expectations run ahead of the data, though, later buyers can be punished quickly.

Why this is not a pure hope trade

Amgen's base business still gives it more room to wait than most pipeline-heavy peers. TD Cowen pointed to solid guidance for 2026 revenue of up to $38.4 billion, while RBC said the diversified portfolio provides a safety net while investors wait for the obesity opportunity. That does not settle the timing debate, but it does make the downside less extreme than a typical biotech hope story.

What would strengthen bulls versus bears: - Bulls: MariTide continues to suggest monthly or quarterly dosing as Phase 3 progresses, and Amgen still supports 2026 revenue guidance of up to $38.4 billion. - Bears: The next outside proof point waits until Phase 3 data on Tezspire for EoE and Dazodalibep for Sjogren's are not expected until the second half of this year, which could make the catalyst calendar slower than bulls want.

What matters more than one analyst upgrade

One bullish target is only commentary until the business and the pipeline keep moving in the same direction.

A practical watch list

The next few months matter because Phase 3 trials for MariTide are still ongoing, and the market wants operating proof, not just excitement. The cleanest check is simple: does Amgen still support guidance around 2026 revenue of up to $38.4 billion as it advances the obesity program? If it does, hope is becoming plan. If not, investors should assume the new engine is taking longer than expected.

The second check is whether the six growth drivers can keep absorbing accelerating losses from its denosumab franchise. That portfolio breadth has been the buffer while Amgen funds late-stage MariTide, IMDELLTRA, and Olpasiran. If those drivers keep offsetting the older cash engine's weak spots, the transition becomes more credible.

The caution flag

Watch insider behavior as well. Recent activity shows negative insider sentiment, with more selling than buying over the past quarter. That does not break the thesis, but it is worth noting if pipeline progress also starts to slow.