Amgen's 2026: Is the "Waiting Year" Already Priced In?

The prevailing market sentiment, as crystallized by Bernstein's recent move, is one of deliberate patience. On January 20, the firm downgraded Amgen to Market Perform, explicitly framing 2026 as a "waiting year" for its promising obesity drug, MariTide. This isn't a call for immediate action; it's a recognition that the stock's near-term trajectory is defined by a data void. The primary catalyst for MariTide-a definitive readout from its Phase 3 trial-is not expected until Q1 2027. For a year, investors are left with no new clinical milestones to drive the narrative.

This analyst view is reinforced by tangible near-term headwinds. Bernstein also flagged possible risk to Repatha, Amgen's cholesterol drug, as Merck's oral PCSK9 inhibitor, Enlicitide, approaches the market. Merck's recent announcement of positive Phase 3 results for Enlicitide, which showed significant LDL-C reductions, introduces a clear competitive overhang. The stock is set to launch in the second half of 2026, directly challenging Repatha's position just as MariTide's story remains untold.

The market's reaction to this thesis appears muted, suggesting the "waiting year" narrative is already priced in. Bernstein maintained its $335 price target unchanged, and the stock is expected to hover within 15% of that level. This stability implies that the consensus view has digested the lack of near-term catalysts and the competitive threat. The setup is one of expectation management: the stock is not being punished for the wait, but neither is it being rewarded for it. The risk/reward ratio, for now, seems balanced on the assumption that 2026 will be a period of stagnation.

MariTide's Pipeline Progress and Market Expectations

MariTide's Phase 2 data presented a compelling case for its potential. The drug demonstrated up to ~20% average weight loss at 52 weeks in people with obesity, a strong efficacy signal that has already been publicized. Its key differentiator, highlighted by CEO Robert Bradshaw at the J.P. Morgan conference, is the potential for quarterly dosing shown in mid-stage trials. This could be a major commercial advantage if proven in Phase 3, addressing a key patient pain point of frequent injections.

Yet the market's high expectations for obesity drugs are now being benchmarked against a new, critical standard. As 2026 begins, the focus is shifting to the Phase III Lp(a)HORIZON study readout for Novartis' pelacarsen, expected in the first half of the year. This trial is seen as a potential "biggest biotech event of the entire year" because it will provide the first definitive proof that lowering Lp(a) reduces cardiovascular risk. For MariTide, which is being developed for obesity and Type 2 diabetes, this creates a forward-looking pressure point. Future cardiovascular outcome studies for MariTide may need to address this same Lp(a) pathway to fully capture its cardiometabolic value proposition.

The bottom line is that MariTide's promising Phase 2 data has already set a high bar. The drug's path to approval hinges on Phase 3 confirming its efficacy and safety, particularly its dosing convenience, against a backdrop of intense competition and evolving scientific standards. The market has priced in the early promise, leaving the next two years as a period of validation rather than surprise.

Valuation and the Asymmetry of Risk

The stock's current valuation reflects a market that has already accepted the "waiting year" narrative. Trading near Bernstein's unchanged $335 price target, the shares are essentially priced for a period of stagnation. This stability suggests the consensus view has digested the lack of near-term catalysts for MariTide and the competitive overhang on Repatha. The setup creates a low-volatility, expectation-managed environment where the stock is not being punished for the wait, but neither is it being rewarded for it.

This pricing introduces a clear asymmetry of risk. The downside is more defined and imminent. The primary threat is to Repatha's commercial trajectory. Merck's upcoming oral PCSK9 inhibitor, Enlicitide, is set to launch in the second half of 2026. If it gains traction, it could erode Repatha's market share, directly impacting a key revenue stream. This is a tangible, near-term risk that the current price may not fully account for, especially given the drug's established position.

On the other side of the ledger, the potential upside is more speculative and long-dated. The recent acquisition of Dark Blue Therapeutics for up to $840 million adds a potential growth vector, strengthening Amgen's oncology pipeline with a novel approach to treating acute myeloid leukemia. However, this is a long-term bet, with the value creation years away. It does not alter the near-term catalyst void.

The bottom line is that the risk/reward ratio hinges on the timing of these competing forces. The market has priced in a year of waiting, leaving little room for error. A successful launch of Enlicitide could trigger a re-rating, while the delayed MariTide readout offers no near-term relief. For now, the stock's valuation appears to offer a cautious, balanced stance-one that acknowledges the known risks while waiting for the next major data point in Q1 2027.

Catalysts and What to Watch in 2026

The "waiting year" thesis hinges on a single, distant data point: the Phase 3 trial results for MariTide in Q1 2027. Until then, the stock's path will be defined by a series of secondary events that either confirm the narrative of stagnation or introduce new, unforeseen pressures. For investors, the calendar for 2026 is a checklist of catalysts that will test the market's patience and the durability of Amgen's key assets.

The first major event to watch is the Phase III Lp(a)HORIZON study readout for Novartis' pelacarsen, expected in the first half of the year. This trial is being called the "biggest biotech event of the entire year" because it will provide the first definitive proof that lowering Lp(a) reduces cardiovascular risk. For Amgen, which is developing MariTide for obesity and Type 2 diabetes, this readout is a critical forward-looking benchmark. It will clarify the potential market opportunity for any future cardiovascular outcome studies on MariTide, which may need to address the same Lp(a) pathway to fully capture its value. A positive pelacarsen readout could validate the entire Lp(a) therapeutic class, while a negative one would cast doubt on a major cardiometabolic avenue for Amgen's pipeline.

Simultaneously, the competitive landscape for Repatha is set to intensify. The launch of Merck's oral PCSK9 inhibitor, Enlicitide, in the second half of 2026 will be a key test for the drug's commercial durability. While the market has priced in this threat, the actual uptake of Enlicitide will determine the magnitude of the near-term headwind. Early sales data and market share shifts will be the primary metrics to monitor, as they will directly impact Repatha's revenue trajectory and, by extension, Amgen's financial stability during its waiting period.

In this environment, the stock's stability near its $335 target suggests that the consensus view has already accounted for the lack of near-term catalysts. The real risk is that the market's expectation for a stagnant year is too rigid. If the pelacarsen readout is positive, it could subtly shift the narrative around Amgen's pipeline potential, creating a "what if" premium. Conversely, any early signs of Enlicitide gaining significant traction could trigger a re-rating downward, as the competitive overhang materializes faster than priced. The catalysts of 2026, therefore, are less about moving the stock and more about confirming whether the current price adequately reflects the known risks-or if it leaves room for a surprise, one way or the other.