Amex Surpasses $72B Revenue, But Growth Risks Loom

Date of Call: Jan 30, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $72B, up 10% YOY
• EPS: $15.38 per share, up 15% YOY excluding Accertify gain

Guidance:

• Revenue growth for 2026 expected to be 9%-10%.
• EPS for 2026 expected to be $17.30-$17.90.
• VCE to revenue ratio expected to be around 44%.
• Marketing expense expected to be up low single digits.
• Operating expenses expected to grow mid-single digits.
• Quarterly dividend increased 16% to $0.95 per share.
• Card fee growth expected to pick up to high teens by year-end.
• NII growth expected to outpace loan and receivable growth.
• Credit metrics expected to remain generally stable with seasonal variation.

Business Commentary:

Strong Financial Performance:

• American Express reported a record revenue of $72 billion for the full year, up 10% year-on-year, with an EPS of $15.38, up 15% excluding the Accertify gain.
• The growth was driven by strong card member spending, double-digit card fee growth for 30 consecutive quarters, and excellent credit quality.

Investment in Growth and Technology:

• The company invested $6.3 billion in marketing, a 75% increase since 2019, and increased technology spending by 20%+ in the last two years.
• These investments were aimed at strengthening customer value propositions, enhancing marketing efficiency, and driving innovation in digital experiences.

Product Refresh and Customer Engagement:

• The introduction of new U.S. Consumer and Small Business Platinum cards led to strong customer demand, with no change in retention rates despite a new fee.
• This success was attributed to strategic product refreshes and enhanced customer engagement through improved value propositions and digital capabilities.

Global Expansion and Partnerships:

• American Express expanded global merchant acceptance to over 170 million locations and strengthened partnerships with international co-brand partners.
• The expansion and partnerships were part of a strategy to enhance the membership model and drive growth in premium products.

Capital Returns and Dividend Growth:

• The company returned $7.6 billion of capital to shareholders in 2025, including $2.3 billion in dividends and $5.3 billion in share repurchases.
• This was supported by a strong track record of returns on equity and a planned 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share for 2026.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management highlighted 'another year of strong performance,' 'record $72 billion' revenue, 15% EPS growth, 'strong momentum,' and 'operating from a position of strength.' They expressed confidence in 2026 guidance and the long-term growth strategy, noting 'very strong demand for premium products' and 'remarkably strong and stable' credit performance.

Q&A:

• Question from Ryan Nash (Goldman Sachs): Can you expand on reallocating marketing from cashback to fee-paying products and how it impacts results?
  Response: The shift was a flexible response to strong Platinum demand; it improves marketing efficiency (U.S. fee-paying product percentage up 8 pts YoY) and does not affect overall revenue targets, which are being met.

• Question from Sanjay Sakrani (KBW): What is driving SME spend weakness and how do you view competitive M&A in this space?
  Response: Small business is strong, middle market is slowing. The competitive landscape is intensifying with recent acquisitions, but Amex remains three times larger than competitors and is launching new offerings (e.g., Center integration).

• Question from Don Fandetti (Wells Fargo): What is the outlook for U.S. consumer and small business health and potential acceleration beyond 9% growth?
  Response: Strong Platinum momentum and high engagement (e.g., restaurant spend up 9%, Resy up 20%) support the outlook, but management is not projecting growth above 9%.

• Question from Erika Najarian (UBS): Does refocusing on fee-paying cards impact the trajectory of Net Card Fees and long-term revenue growth?
  Response: Yes, the portfolio is becoming more premium, driving strong card fee growth (up 16% in Q4, reaching $10B annually). Growth is expected to accelerate in 2026 as Platinum refresh renewals progress.

• Question from Rick Shane (JP Morgan): With low credit expense, is there incremental investment opportunity or will it fall to the bottom line?
  Response: The model is generating efficiencies on marketing and operating expenses as the portfolio shifts to premium products; any upside would be reflected within the mid-teen EPS growth guidance.

• Question from Mark DeVries (Deutsche Bank): How does a product refresh impact existing customer engagement and spend?
  Response: Existing customers engage more over time, especially with new benefits like the Platinum app; new customers are drawn immediately by the value proposition, leading to increased overall spend and engagement.

• Question from Craig Maurer (FT Partners): How will card member services growth cadence moderate after the Platinum refresh?
  Response: Engagement is expected to stabilize after initial uptake; VCE to revenue ratio is guided to around 44% for 2026, accounting for seasonal variations.

• Question from Jeff Adelson (Morgan Stanley): What is your view on the proposed 10% credit card cap and its potential impact?
  Response: Management opposes the cap, believing it would reduce card availability, line sizes, and hurt small businesses, creating a downward spiral.

• Question from John Pankari (Evercore ISI): What are the greatest risks to the 2026 outlook—competitive or macro/political?
  Response: Macroeconomic or political risks are greater; competitive dynamics are ongoing but manageable, with Amex aiming to stay ahead through innovation and superior customer service.

• Question from Moshe Orenbuch (TD Cowen): How is Amex positioning itself in small business amid increased competition and M&A?
  Response: The Center acquisition provides an integrated expense management offering; Amex plans to enhance commercial capabilities and compete effectively despite a more challenging landscape.

• Question from Mihir Bhatia (Bank of America): What are the key high-impact initiatives for 2026?
  Response: Continuing to win in premium segments, building commercial capabilities, expanding international coverage, enhancing digital and small business offerings, and leveraging recent acquisitions like Resy and Tock.

• Question from Brian Foran (Truist): Is the market getting overheated in terms of growth cost, or is it just accounting dynamics?
  Response: Management does not view the market as overheated; Amex's consistent growth and disciplined investment (e.g., low Platinum acquisition costs) support a long-term, economical approach.

• Question from Chris Kennedy (William Blair): How will the new AI/data analytics platform drive card member engagement?
  Response: The cloud-based platform will enable personalized marketing, better insights, and dynamic engagement with cardholders, improving efficiency and marketing effectiveness.

Contradiction Point 1

Financial Impact and Pacing of Platinum Card Refresh Expenses

It involves differing explanations of how Platinum card refresh expenses are recognized, impacting the understanding of financial performance and future costs.

Does refocusing marketing on fee-paying cards impact long-term Net Card Fees and revenue growth? - Erika Najarian (UBS)

2025Q4: Growth is expected to accelerate through 2026 as more Platinum card members face renewal anniversaries and pay the new fee. Credit metrics (delinquency and write-off rates) remain below 2019 levels, showing stability. - Christophe Le Caillec(CFO)

What is the financial impact of the Platinum card refresh on card fees and VCE expenses, and how does it affect the ability to achieve mid-teens EPS growth during the refresh period? - Ryan Nash (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2025Q3: The refresh is a material investment. Card fee growth is delayed and amortized over 12 months, while benefits are expensed immediately. This creates a step-up in VCE in Q4 2025 and 2026. - Christophe Le Caillec(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Marketing Spend Efficiency and Investment Horizon

Contradiction on the efficiency and strategic purpose of high marketing investment, impacting perceptions of company discipline and future profitability.

How are marketing dollars being reallocated from cashback to fee-paying products, and will this strategy continue to impact results? - Ryan Nash (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q4: The efficiency of marketing dollars is improving—evidenced by an 8 percentage point increase in the percentage of U.S. consumer card members paying fees year-over-year. - Christophe Le Caillec(CFO)

Can you discuss marketing spend trends for Q4 and 2026, specifically how the ~$6 billion annualized spend is allocated across broad-based sponsorships, brand building, and micro-targeted incentives such as bonuses and retention? - Mihir Bhatia (BofA Securities)

2025Q3: There is a tension between spending more and ensuring efficiency. The company is disciplined, subjecting every dollar to rigorous return-on-investment analysis. - Christophe Le Caillec(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Net Card Fee Growth Trajectory Post-Platinum Refresh

Contradiction on when Net Card Fee growth will accelerate after the Platinum refresh, affecting the company's financial outlook and investor expectations.

Does refocusing marketing on fee-paying cards impact long-term Net Card Fees and revenue growth? - Erika Najarian (UBS)

2025Q4: Growth is expected to accelerate through 2026 as more Platinum card members face renewal anniversaries and pay the new fee. - Christophe Le Caillec(CFO)

Will the Platinum refresh add to net card fee growth or only maintain growth compared to past refreshes? - Terry Ma (Barclays Bank PLC)

2025Q2: Net card fee growth is expected to moderate in Q3 and Q4 of 2025. An acceleration in growth due to the Platinum fee increase is anticipated in early 2026, but moderation is expected in the second half of 2025. - Christophe Y. Le Caillec(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Competitive Intensity for Premium Cards

Contradiction on whether the current competitive environment is more or less intense than in the past, influencing strategic planning and risk assessment.

Which poses the greatest risk to the 2026 outlook: competition, economic factors, or political factors? - John Pankari (Evercore ISI)

2025Q4: The competitive landscape in consumer cards has always been tough... while competitor moves are anticipated. - Steve Squeri(CEO)

Is this Platinum refresh the first in a competitive market, and how will it differ from past refreshes? - Moshe Ari Orenbuch (TD Cowen)

2025Q2: Competition has been intense for over a decade... The current environment is less intense than the initial Sapphire launch. - Stephen Joseph Squeri(CEO)