Ameriprise Financial's Earnings Outlook and Strategic Positioning for 2026

Ameriprise Financial (AMP) has long been a bellwether for the financial services sector, combining robust earnings growth with strategic adaptability to macroeconomic shifts. As 2026 approaches, the company's recent performance-marked by strong earnings momentum and a stock price that has lagged broader market gains-raises a critical question: Does this underperformance represent a compelling value opportunity?

Earnings Momentum: A Foundation for Optimism

Ameriprise's 2024 results underscore its operational strength. GAAP net income per diluted share surged to $33.05 for the year, a 40% increase from 2023, while adjusted operating earnings per share in Q4 2024 rose 23% to $9.54. Analysts project this momentum to continue, with 2025 adjusted EPS expected to reach $38.75 (a 12.8% annual increase) and 2026 estimates climbing to $41.64, reflecting a 7.5% year-over-year gain. This trajectory is bolstered by the company's consistent ability to outperform earnings expectations in recent quarters, including a 12% year-over-year jump in adjusted EPS during Q3 2025.

The optimism is not unfounded. Ameriprise's Chief Market Strategist, Anthony Saglimbene, highlights a broader economic backdrop of "solid infrastructure and technology investments" and anticipates double-digit S&P 500 earnings per share growth in 2026. These tailwinds suggest that Ameriprise's earnings growth is not isolated but part of a larger trend of corporate profitability driven by AI adoption and productivity gains.

Stock Underperformance: A Dislocation to Exploit?

Despite these fundamentals, AMP has underperformed both the S&P 500 and the financial sector in 2025, falling 15.9% year-to-date and 21.5% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 gained 12.3% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund rose 3%. This divergence raises questions about whether the market is discounting risks-such as macroeconomic volatility or competitive pressures-that may not materialize.

Analyst sentiment, however, remains cautiously bullish. A "Moderate Buy" consensus rating reflects confidence in the company's ability to deliver on its earnings projections, even as share price volatility persists. Notably, AMP is trading below analyst price targets, with a fair value estimate of $533–$538.50 implying potential upside from current levels. This disconnect between fundamentals and valuation suggests a possible mispricing, particularly given Ameriprise's five-year total shareholder return of 149%.

Strategic Positioning: Navigating Macroeconomic Dynamics

Ameriprise's 2026 outlook is shaped by several macroeconomic factors. First, inflation is expected to moderate to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by year-end 2026, aided by declining tariff impacts and lower housing costs. This environment should benefit Ameriprise's asset management and wealth advisory segments, which thrive in stable inflationary conditions.

Second, the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory remains data-dependent, with potential rate cuts in 2026 likely to support borrowing and consumer spending. While long-term interest rates may remain firm due to U.S. deficit dynamics, the near-term easing could enhance Ameriprise's fixed-income offerings and client engagement.

Third, the transition of AI from hype to measurable value is a key catalyst. Ameriprise anticipates that companies demonstrating improved margins and productivity through AI will outperform, a trend that could amplify S&P 500 earnings growth. Additionally, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's tax relief provisions for seniors and workers are expected to stimulate consumer spending, indirectly boosting demand for financial planning and investment services.

Risks and Considerations

The case for investment is not without caveats. Persistent labor market imbalances and small business hiring challenges could delay broader economic recovery. Moreover, increased competition in the wealth management sector and advisor attrition risks may pressure Ameriprise's margins. However, the company's disciplined cost management and focus on technology-driven client solutions position it to mitigate these headwinds.

Conclusion: A Compelling Value Proposition

Ameriprise Financial's earnings trajectory, supported by macroeconomic tailwinds and strategic agility, presents a compelling case for near-term investment. The stock's underperformance appears to reflect short-term volatility rather than a fundamental deterioration in its business model. With a 2026 EPS target of $41.64 and a valuation discount to analyst estimates, investors may be poised to capitalize on a mispriced opportunity in a sector primed for growth.