American Public Education (APEI) Shares Soar 6.30% Ahead of Earnings

American Public Education (APEI) shares surged 6.30% today, marking the sixth consecutive day of gains, with a total increase of 17.18% over the past six days. The stock price reached its highest level since August 2021, with an intraday gain of 8.31%.

The strategy of buying APEI shares after they reached a recent high and holding for 1 week yielded moderate returns over the past 5 years, with a 7.56% annualized return and a 37.41% overall return. However, the strategy underperformed the market, as evidenced by the 9.56% annualized return and 48.15% overall return of the S&P 500 index over the same period.

Performance of the Strategy:

- The strategy of buying APEI shares after they reached a recent high and holding for 1 week generated a 7.56% annualized return and a 37.41% overall return over the past 5 years.

- This indicates that while the strategy provided positive returns, it was modest compared to the broader market as captured by the S&P 500 index.

Comparison with the Market:

- The S&P 500 index delivered stronger returns, with a 9.56% annualized return and a 48.15% overall return over the same period.

- This suggests that holding the stock or investing in the broader market would have been more advantageous for long-term growth.

Recent Performance Drivers:

- American Public Education's (APEI) stock recently reached a 52-week high, reflecting strong performance and investor confidence.

- The company's strong Q4 results for 2025, including revenue growth and robust enrollments, have contributed to the stock's upward trajectory.

- APEI's financial health, as indicated by a GOOD financial health score, has supported the stock's performance.

In conclusion, while the strategy of buying APEI shares after they reached a recent high and holding for 1 week provided some returns, the performance was modest compared to the market. The recent high performance of APEI's stock is supported by the company's strong financial results and market sentiment. For long-term growth, holding the stock or investing in the broader market might be more beneficial.

American Public Education is poised to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 12. Analysts anticipate a stable earnings per share (EPS) estimate of 15 cents, reflecting a significant improvement from the previous year's loss of 6 cents per share. This positive outlook is driven by strong enrollment trends across its key segments, including American Public University System (APUS), Houghton College (HCN), and Rasmussen University (RU).

The company expects first-quarter revenues to rise by 4-6% year-over-year, reaching $161-$163 million. This growth is supported by robust enrollment increases across all segments. APUS is projected to see a 1.5-3% growth in net course registrations, while HCN and RU are expected to experience enrollment growth of 10% and 7%, respectively. These enrollment trends are crucial for APEI's revenue growth and overall financial performance.

Despite the anticipated revenue growth, APEI's earnings remain under pressure due to negative adjusted EBITDA from the Global Security University (GSUSA) segment. The company forecasts adjusted EPS to be between 9 cents and 17 cents, compared to the previous year's loss of 6 cents. This financial performance highlights the challenges APEI faces in balancing growth with profitability.

Overall, the combination of expected earnings improvements and strong enrollment growth is likely to positively influence APEI's stock performance in the near term. Investors will be closely watching the company's first-quarter results to gauge its progress and future prospects.