AMH Plunges 5.7% as Trump's Institutional Home-Buying Ban Sparks Sector-Wide Turmoil

Summary
• American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) slumps to $28.86, its 52-week low, amid a 5.7% intraday drop
• Turnover surges to 9.56 million shares, reflecting heightened volatility
• Trump's proposed ban on institutional home purchases triggers sector-wide sell-off
• Bollinger Bands and RSI signal bearish momentum amid regulatory uncertainty

Today’s selloff in AMH, a single-family rental (SFR) REIT, reflects cascading fears over Trump’s policy shift targeting institutional real estate ownership. With the stock trading 5.7% below its previous close, the move underscores regulatory risk as the administration seeks to curb Wall Street’s influence on housing markets. The sector’s sharp correction highlights the fragility of REIT valuations in a policy-driven environment.

Trump's Housing Policy Sparks Sector-Wide Sell-Off
President Trump’s announcement of an immediate ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes triggered a panic across SFR REITs. The policy, framed as a populist measure to restore 'American Dream' homeownership, directly targets AMH’s business model. With AMH down 6.3% and sector leader Invitation Homes (INVH) plunging 8.6%, the market is pricing in a structural shift. The move aligns with broader populist rhetoric against Wall Street’s role in housing, amplifying short-term volatility as investors reassess REIT fundamentals under regulatory overhang.

Residential REITs Reeling as INVH Tumbles 8.6%
The residential REIT sector is in freefall, with AMH’s 5.7% drop mirrored by 6.1% and 5.1% declines in INVH and BX, respectively. The sector’s exposure to institutional homebuying makes it uniquely vulnerable to Trump’s policy. Morguard North American Residential REIT’s $4.9M debenture buyback and GO Residential’s NCIB highlight defensive moves, but sector-wide pessimism dominates. AMH’s 52-week low at $28.86 aligns with broader REIT weakness, as investors flee assets tied to institutional housing markets.

Options Playbook: AMH20260116P30 and AMH20260220P30 Lead the Bearish Charge
• 200-day MA: 34.67 (well above current price)
• RSI: 61.76 (neutral but bearish bias)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 30.35 (lower band), 31.52 (middle band)
• MACD: 0.096 (bullish divergence but weak)

Key levels to watch: 30.35 (lower Bollinger), 31.52 (middle Bollinger), and 32.69 (upper Bollinger). Short-term bearish momentum suggests a test of 30.35, with potential for further downside. The AMH20260116P30 put (strike $30, 1/16 expiration) and AMH20260220P30 put (strike $30, 2/20 expiration) offer high leverage for bearish bets.

AMH20260116P30:
• Code: AMH20260116P30
• Type: Put
• Strike: $30
• Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 56.87% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 41.19% (high)
• Delta: -0.359 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.045 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.128 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 66,519 (liquid)

AMH20260220P30:
• Code: AMH20260220P30
• Type: Put
• Strike: $30
• Expiry: 2026-02-20
• IV: 38.27% (moderate)
• Leverage: 25.53% (moderate)
• Delta: -0.384 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.015 (low time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0917 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 4,606 (liquid)

Under a 5% downside scenario (price at $28.97), AMH20260116P30 would yield a $1.08 payoff (650% gain), while AMH20260220P30 would deliver $1.03 (266% gain). The AMH20260116P30’s high IV and gamma make it ideal for short-term bearish plays, while the AMH20260220P30 offers extended exposure with lower time decay. Aggressive bears should prioritize the 1/16 put for immediate directional bets.

Backtest American Homes 4 Stock Performance
The AMH ETF has experienced a total of 490 days with an intraday percentage change of less than -6% since 2022. The 3-day win rate is 50.41%, the 10-day win rate is 50.61%, and the 30-day win rate is 44.49%. However, the ETF has not managed to capitalize on these negative movements, with the 3-day return, 10-day return, and 30-day return all coming in at 0.00%. The maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.03%, which occurred on January 11, 2026.

Act Now: AMH at Critical Support as Sector Uncertainty Lingers
The selloff in AMH and the broader REIT sector reflects a policy-driven shockwave with no immediate resolution. With AMH testing its 52-week low and INVH down 8.6%, investors must brace for extended volatility. Key technical levels at 30.35 and 31.52 will dictate near-term direction, while regulatory clarity on Trump’s housing ban remains critical. Aggressive short-term bearish positions via AMH20260116P30 and AMH20260220P30 offer high-reward potential, but caution is warranted as policy outcomes remain uncertain. Watch for a breakdown below 30.35 or a shift in sector sentiment to pivot strategies.