American Express Surges 2.23% on Holiday Spending Rally – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• CEO Stephen Squeri confirmed 9% Y/Y growth in U.S. retail spending during Thanksgiving week
• AXP trades at $372.03, up 2.23% intraday with a high of $373.94 and low of $363.00
• Adobe Analytics reported 7.7% Cyber Week online spending growth, trailing AmEx’s 9% surge

AmEx’s stock rallied sharply on robust holiday spending data, outperforming broader market trends. The 9% year-over-year retail spending growth reported by CEO Stephen Squeri, coupled with strong platinum cardholder activity, has ignited investor optimism. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $377.23, the move reflects confidence in AmEx’s premium customer base and its resilience amid economic uncertainty.

Holiday Spending Surge Drives AXP’s Rally
American Express’s 2.23% intraday gain is directly tied to CEO Stephen Squeri’s confirmation of 9% year-over-year growth in U.S. retail spending during the Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday period. This outperformed Adobe Analytics’ 7.7% Cyber Week online spending growth, signaling strong demand for luxury and discretionary purchases. The data alleviated concerns about a weak holiday season, particularly after the U.S. government shutdown disrupted travel. AmEx’s focus on affluent customers, who continue prioritizing travel and big-ticket items, has insulated it from broader retail softness. The rally also follows the company’s October upgrade to 2025 profit and revenue forecasts, reinforcing investor confidence.

Payment Sector Mixed as AXP Outpaces Peers
While American Express surged 2.23%, Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) saw muted gains. Visa’s intraday price change was 0.09%, reflecting broader sector caution. AmEx’s outperformance stems from its premium customer base, which drives higher spending during holidays. Adobe’s 7.7% Cyber Week growth, though positive, lags behind AmEx’s 9% retail spending increase, highlighting the company’s unique positioning in the luxury and high-end market.

Options Playbook: Leveraging AXP’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 309.52 (well below current price)
• RSI: 72.10 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 3.74 (bullish divergence from signal line 3.52)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at 379.92, Middle at 359.64, Lower at 339.35

Technical indicators suggest AXP is in a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish. Key support lies at the 30D moving average ($360.57–361.21), while resistance is near the 52-week high of $377.23. The RSI’s overbought reading (72.10) signals potential near-term consolidation, but the MACD’s positive histogram and Bollinger Band positioning favor a continuation of the rally. Two options stand out for aggressive bulls:

• AXP20251219C375 (Call, Strike $375, Expiry 12/19):
- Implied Volatility: 25.99% (moderate)
- LVR: 70.25% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.45 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.848 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0247 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 92,643 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($390.63): $15.63/share. This contract offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a breakout above $375.

• AXP20251219C380 (Call, Strike $380, Expiry 12/19):
- Implied Volatility: 27.27% (moderate)
- LVR: 100.08% (extreme leverage)
- Delta: 0.34 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.711 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.0218 (strong sensitivity)
- Turnover: 35,485 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($390.63): $10.63/share. This option’s high leverage and gamma make it a speculative play if AXP breaks above $380.

Aggressive bulls should consider AXP20251219C375 into a breakout above $375 or AXP20251219C380 for a high-leverage bet on a sustained rally.

Backtest American Express Stock Performance
After a 2% intraday increase from 2022 to now, American Express (AXP) experienced a decline in its stock price. The backtest shows a 3-day win rate of 47.25%, a 10-day win rate of 44.92%, and a 30-day win rate of 38.98%. However, the stock's return fell to -0.50% over 3 days, -1.21% over 10 days, and -3.92% over 30 days. The maximum return during the backtest was -0.10%, with the maximum return day being day 0, indicating the immediate day after the intraday surge.

Seize the Momentum: AXP’s Holiday Surge Signals Strategic Entry
American Express’s 2.23% rally is underpinned by robust holiday spending and a resilient premium customer base. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and strong technical indicators suggest a continuation of the bullish trend. Investors should monitor the $377.23 level as a critical resistance; a break above could trigger a retest of the 52-week high. For context, sector leader Visa (V) gained 0.09%, underscoring AXP’s outperformance. Aggressive traders may consider the AXP20251219C375 call option for a leveraged play on a breakout, while long-term holders should watch for a pullback to the 30D support ($360.57–361.21) as a potential entry point.