American Express Soars to 52-Week High on Holiday Spending Surge, 9% Uptick in U.S. Consumer Spending Drives 3.03% Intraday Gains

Summary
• American Express (AXP) surges 3.03% to $374.92, hitting a 52-week high of $376.77
• CEO Stephen Squeri reports 9% Y/Y growth in U.S. retail spending during Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday period
• Platinum card spending jumps 13%, outpacing Adobe’s 7.7% Cyber Week growth
• Options chain shows aggressive bullish positioning, with AXP20251219C380 and AXP20251219C382.5 attracting high turnover and leverage ratios exceeding 70%.

AmEx’s holiday-week spending surge has ignited a sharp rally in its shares, defying broader market caution. With Platinum cardholders driving a 13% spike in discretionary spending, the stock’s 3.03% intraday gain reflects renewed confidence in affluent consumer resilience. Technicals and options data suggest traders are positioning for a continuation of this momentum, as the stock tests its 52-week high.

Holiday Spending Surge and Platinum Card Relaunch Fuel Rally
American Express’s 3.03% intraday gain is directly tied to CEO Stephen Squeri’s revelation of a 9% year-over-year increase in U.S. retail spending during the Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday period. Platinum card spending surged 13%, outpacing Adobe’s 7.7% Cyber Week growth, signaling robust discretionary spending among high-income consumers. This data alleviated concerns about a weak holiday season, particularly after a prolonged U.S. government shutdown. The company’s 2025 earnings guidance upgrade and strategic focus on premium cardholders further reinforced investor optimism, pushing shares to a 52-week high.

Credit Services Sector Outperforms as AmEx Leads Holiday Spending Charge
The Credit Services sector, led by American Express, outperformed broader market benchmarks. While Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) saw muted gains (Visa up 0.085%), AmEx’s 3.03% rally underscored its unique positioning among affluent consumers. The sector’s strength contrasts with economic uncertainty, as high-income spending on travel and luxury items insulated AmEx from broader retail softness. This divergence highlights the sector’s reliance on premium customer behavior, which remains resilient despite macroeconomic headwinds.

Bullish Options and ETFs Capitalize on Momentum, Technicals Signal Breakout Potential
• 200-day average: 309.52 (well below current price)
• RSI: 72.10 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 3.74 (bullish divergence from signal line 3.52)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 374.92, near upper band of 379.92
• 30D support/resistance: 360.57–361.21 (broken)
• 200D support/resistance: 293.60–296.42 (far below)

American Express’s technicals suggest a breakout above key resistance levels, with RSI nearing overbought territory and MACD showing bullish momentum. The stock’s 3.03% rally has drawn aggressive bullish options positioning, particularly in the 380–382.5 strike range. Two top options for capitalizing on this momentum are:

• AXP20251219C380: Call option with 380 strike, expiring Dec 19. Key stats: IV 28.34%, leverage ratio 70.90%, delta 0.4227 (moderate sensitivity), theta -0.8470 (high time decay), gamma 0.0222 (strong price sensitivity), turnover 83,939. This contract offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (projected price $393.67, payoff $13.67 per contract).
• AXP20251219C382.5: Call option with 382.5 strike, expiring Dec 19. Key stats: IV 22.01%, leverage ratio 129.58%, delta 0.3289 (lower sensitivity), theta -0.6434 (moderate time decay), gamma 0.0264 (high sensitivity), turnover 11,732. This contract’s extreme leverage ratio (129.58%) makes it ideal for aggressive bulls, with a 5% upside scenario yielding $11.17 per contract (projected price $393.67).

Aggressive bulls should consider AXP20251219C382.5 into a breakout above $382.50, while conservative traders may target AXP20251219C380 for a more balanced risk-reward profile. Both contracts benefit from high gamma and liquidity, ensuring smooth entry/exit.

Backtest American Express Stock Performance
After a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to the present, American Express (AXP) has shown positive short-to-medium-term performance. The backtest results indicate that 55.91% of days experienced a return in the first three days, with an average return of 0.27%. Over the next ten days, the win rate remained at 55.31%, with an average return of 0.75%. In the longer term, the 30-day win rate increased to 63.78%, with an average return of 2.48%. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.79%, which occurred on day 59 after the initial surge. These results suggest that AXP tends to maintain upward momentum following a strong intraday performance, making it a potentially favorable investment option for those looking for consistent returns.

Breakout Confirmed: Target $385–$390 as Momentum Intensifies
American Express’s 3.03% rally has confirmed a breakout above critical resistance, with technicals and options data aligning for a continuation of this momentum. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($377.23) and strong Platinum card performance suggest the move is sustainable, particularly if consumer spending remains resilient. Traders should monitor the 380–382.5 strike range for further bullish signals, while sector leader Visa (V) up 0.085% highlights AmEx’s outperformance. A close above $385 would validate the breakout, with $390 as the next key target. Watch for a surge in AXP20251219C382.5 volume as a leading indicator of institutional conviction.