American Express Q4 2024: Diverging Views on Revenue Growth, Spending Trends, and Consumer Sentiment

Record Financial Performance:
- American Express achieved record revenues of $66 billion for the year 2024, up 10% on an FX-adjusted basis, with record net income of $10 billion and earnings per share of $14.01, which represented a 25% increase year-on-year.
- The growth was driven by strong consumer spending, record net card fees, and a record 13 million new card acquisitions, supported by strategic investments in value propositions, marketing, and technology.

Consumer and SME Growth:
- US Consumer spend was up 9% year-over-year in Q4, with Millennial and Gen-Z spend growing 16%, while US SME grew 3%.
- This was attributed to increased spending by premium consumers and improved small business confidence, leading to stronger organic spending by SME customers.

International Expansion and Growth:
- American Express's international business grew 15% on an FX-adjusted basis in Q4, with each of the top five markets growing in mid to high teens.
- The growth was facilitated by increased merchant coverage, expanding card acquisition efforts, and the ongoing global expansion of the merchant network.

Guidance and Outlook for 2025:
- For 2025, American Express expects 8% to 10% revenue growth and EPS between $15 and $15.50, reflecting 12% to 16% growth year-over-year, adjusted for the Accertify Gain.
- The guidance considers stable spending conditions and the potential continuation of the elevated fourth-quarter billings growth, supported by strong consumer and SME performance.