American Cardinal Robert Prevost Elected Pope Leo XIV, Defying 1.2% Odds
1min read American Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected pope on Thursday, marking a historic moment as the first U.S.-born pontiff. This unexpected outcome defied the odds heavily favoring European contenders, causing a significant upset in global betting markets where Prevost had less than a 2% chance of being elected across major platforms.
Following the death of Pope Francis on April 25, 2025, speculation quickly turned to who would succeed him as the leader of the Catholic Church. Many anticipated that an Italian cardinal or one from a predominantly Catholic country would be chosen. Ahead of the conclave, Cardinal Pietro Parolin was ranked as the favorite, followed by Cardinals Luis Antonio Tagle and Pierbattista Pizzaballa. Prevost was not listed among the top five contenders, reflecting the low expectations surrounding his candidacy.
After black smoke signaled on Wednesday that no pope had been chosen, bettors on various platforms entered the second day of the conclave with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the front-runner. On one platform, Parolin drew significant volume, followed by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. On another platform, Parolin surged to 68% as white smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel on Thursday, signaling that the conclave had chosen a new pope. By comparison, Prevost had only 1.2%, trailing behind Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson at 4.2%.
Despite the long odds and low betting confidence, Prevost's surprise election reminds us that dark horse candidates can rise to the top in even the most tradition-bound institutions. The revelation of the new pope on Thursday afternoon caught many by surprise. The favorite in the betting markets was Pietro Parolin, with other top contenders including Luis Antonio Tagle and Pierbattista Pizzaballa. However, none of these cardinals were chosen. Instead, the cardinals voted for Prevost, who had not been a significant figure in the betting markets. This unexpected outcome highlighted the unpredictability of the papal conclave and the challenges in predicting the cardinals' choices.
The election of Pope Leo XIV was a historic decision that proved lucrative for some bettors. At least two individuals won gambling prizes exceeding $50,000 by betting on Prevost's election. This outcome underscored the element of surprise and the potential for significant gains in betting markets, despite the inherent unpredictability of the process. The white smoke that emerged from the Sistine Chapel on Thursday signaled the election of a new pope. The 133 cardinals sequestered inside for two days had made their choice, and the world was introduced to Pope Leo XIV. This historic moment marked a significant shift in the leadership of the Catholic Church and highlighted the unpredictable nature of the papal conclave.
