America Is Slow-Walking Into a Polymarket Disaster

Ukraine has blocked access to prediction market platform Polymarket, classifying it as unlicensed gambling under national law. The move was issued by the National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic Communications on Dec. 10, 2025. The domain polymarket.com was added to Ukraine's public register of blocked websites.

The ban follows growing criticism of Polymarket for facilitating bets on geopolitical events linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The platform has faced similar restrictions in 33 other countries, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Australia according to reports.

Meanwhile, Kalshi has overtaken Polymarket in terms of trade volume, capturing 66.4% of the global prediction market. The shift has been driven by Kalshi's regulatory compliance, integration with Robinhood, and a focus on sports betting as data shows.

Why the Move Happened

Ukrainian authorities have raised concerns about the influence of prediction markets on sensitive geopolitical events. Polymarket allows users to trade shares on outcomes of global events, with prices reflecting market-implied probabilities. This mechanism has drawn scrutiny for its potential to shape or distort public perception according to analysis.

In December 2025, the NCEC cited unlicensed gambling as the legal basis for the ban. The commission's resolution requires internet service providers to restrict access to sites facilitating gambling without a valid license.

How Markets Responded

Kalshi's rise has been fueled by its regulatory alignment with U.S. financial standards and its integration with mainstream platforms like Robinhood. In early 2026, Kalshi processed over $2 billion in weekly notional volume, with 91.1% of that volume coming from sports-related contracts as reported.

The platform has also benefited from the limitations of Polymarket's reliance on the USDC stablecoin and the Polygon blockchain. Retail investors in the U.S. have shown a preference for USD-based transactions over crypto-based systems, which Kalshi provides according to market data.

What Analysts Are Watching Next

Analysts are observing how Polymarket will respond to its declining market position and increased regulatory pressure. Some speculate that the platform may seek to enter the U.S. market through a compliant brokerage model to regain its lost share as analysts note.

Meanwhile, concerns persist over the potential for insider trading in prediction markets. U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres is advancing legislation to bar federal officials from trading on political or policy outcomes using nonpublic information.

The rise of prediction markets is also drawing attention from traditional sports betting operators. Tennessee's sports betting regulator has ordered Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to halt the offering of sports event contracts to residents of the state.

As the prediction market industry continues to evolve, regulators and investors will be watching for further developments, particularly around legal boundaries, consumer behavior, and the potential for new market categories like real estate or weather-based derivatives according to industry analysis.