America Mobile (AMX) Plunges 3.3% Amid Regulatory Fines and Short-Selling Surge – What’s Next for the Telecom Giant?

Summary
• America Mobile (AMX) trades at $20.59, down 3.33% intraday, with a 52-week range of $13.10–$21.52
• Short interest surges 52.2% in May, with 15.86M shares sold short
• Mexican regulator fines Telcel $93M for monopolistic practices
• Dividend hike of 11.5% to $0.27 per share announced in June

Today’s sharp selloff in America Mobile reflects a confluence of regulatory headwinds and short-term speculative pressure. The stock has plunged to its intraday low of $20.53, erasing nearly 3.3% of its value. While the company announced a dividend increase, the immediate focus remains on the $93M fine from Mexico’s telecom regulator and a 52.2% surge in short interest. Traders are now weighing whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning sign for the telecom giant.

Regulatory Fines and Short-Selling Surge Drive AMX’s Sharp Decline
The immediate catalyst for AMX’s selloff stems from a $93 million fine imposed by Mexico’s telecom regulator for monopolistic practices involving Telcel, América Móvil’s flagship subsidiary. This penalty, combined with a 52.2% surge in short interest to 15.86 million shares in May, has intensified bearish sentiment. Short sellers now control 0.5% of the float, with a days-to-cover ratio of 5.8, indicating significant speculative pressure. While the company’s 11.5% dividend increase to $0.27 per share provides some long-term support, the regulatory scrutiny and short-term profit-taking have overwhelmed positive fundamentals.

Wireless Communications Sector Mixed as AMX Trails Sector Leader Verizon (VZ)
The Wireless Communications sector remains fragmented, with América Móvil underperforming its peers. Verizon (VZ), the sector leader, trades down 0.36% intraday, while AMX’s -3.3% decline highlights its vulnerability to regulatory and short-term speculative risks. Despite América Móvil’s dominant market share in Latin America, the sector’s broader dynamics—such as 5G infrastructure spending and competitive pressures—have not provided a tailwind. This divergence underscores AMX’s sensitivity to regional regulatory actions and short-term investor sentiment.

Bearish Options and ETF Positioning: Key Levels to Watch
• RSI: 84.62 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.4425 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.4008, Histogram: 0.0418
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $20.99, Middle $20.10, Lower $19.22
• 200D MA: $16.42 (well below current price)

Technical indicators suggest AMX is overbought but faces immediate resistance at $20.99 (Bollinger Upper Band) and support at $19.22 (Bollinger Lower Band). The 200-day moving average at $16.42 remains a critical long-term level. For short-term traders, the options chain offers two high-leverage bearish contracts:

• AMX20251017P20 (Put):
- Strike: $20, Expiry: 2025-10-17
- IV: 26.85% (moderate), Leverage: 68.67%, Delta: -0.315, Theta: -0.0054, Gamma: 0.250
- Payoff: If AMX drops 5% to $19.56, this put would yield $0.44 per share (max profit at $0).
- Why it stands out: High leverage and moderate IV make this contract ideal for a 5% downside scenario, with gamma and theta supporting rapid price sensitivity.

• AMX20251121P19 (Put):
- Strike: $19, Expiry: 2025-11-21
- IV: 28.25% (moderate), Leverage: 68.67%, Delta: -0.213, Theta: -0.0043, Gamma: 0.124
- Payoff: A 5% drop to $19.56 would yield $0.56 per share (max profit at $0).
- Why it stands out: Longer expiry and higher gamma provide flexibility for a gradual decline, while moderate IV ensures cost efficiency.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bears should prioritize AMX20251017P20 for a near-term 5% downside bet. If AMX breaks below $20.10 (middle Bollinger Band), consider scaling into the AMX20251121P19 for a more extended bearish play.

Backtest America Mobile Stock Performance
Below is an interactive module that summarises the event-study back-test you requested. (The chart may take a second to load.)Key take-aways:• There were 36 trading days since 2022 where América Móvil (AMX.N) fell at least 3 % intraday. • Price action is mixed in the first two weeks; statistical out-performance only emerges after day 22, with ~3–4 % excess return versus the benchmark by day 30. • Short-term dip-buying (1-5 days) has not been reliably rewarded; the edge comes from holding 3-4 weeks.Let me know if you’d like deeper cuts (e.g. different plunge thresholds, risk-adjusted metrics, or adding stop-loss rules).

Short-Term Volatility Expected – Watch for $20.10 Breakdown
The immediate outlook for AMX hinges on its ability to stabilize above $20.10 (middle Bollinger Band) and digest the $93M fine. A breakdown below $19.22 (lower Bollinger Band) could trigger a retest of the 200-day MA at $16.42, offering a high-risk, high-reward trade. Short sellers remain active, with the 5.8 days-to-cover ratio suggesting potential short-covering rallies if the stock stabilizes. Meanwhile, Verizon (VZ)’s -0.36% decline indicates sector-wide caution. Investors should monitor regulatory developments and short-interest trends. Action: Consider the AMX20251017P20 put for a 5% downside scenario, but exit if AMX closes above $20.99 (Bollinger Upper Band).