Ameresco Soars 9.18% on Navy AI Data Center Partnership—What’s Fueling This Volatile Surge?

Summary
• Ameresco (AMRC) surges 9.18% to $26.50, breaking above its 52-week high of $39.68
• Partnership with U.S. Navy and CyrusOne to build a 100 MW AI-optimized data center at NAS Lemoore
• Options chain shows heavy call buying on AMRC20250919C25 with 125.81% price change

Ameresco’s stock is trading at a 9.18% intraday gain, driven by a landmark partnership with the U.S. Navy to develop a 100 MW AI-optimized data center. The project, expected to be one of the company’s largest energy assets, has triggered a surge in call options activity and elevated volatility. With a 22.8% revenue growth backdrop and a 1.83 debt-to-equity ratio, the stock’s sharp move raises questions about sustainability and sector alignment.

Navy Partnership Ignites AI-Data Center Hype
Ameresco’s 9.18% surge is directly tied to its announced collaboration with the U.S. Navy and CyrusOne to construct a 100 MW AI-optimized data center at Naval Air Station Lemoore. The project includes a microgrid with engine generators and control systems, positioning Ameresco to meet the U.S. government’s AI Action Plan goals. The facility, engineered to FedRAMP and FISMA High standards, will feature air-gapped architectures and zero-trust security models. With the first phase expected online in 2027, the partnership aligns with federal efforts to accelerate data center permitting and secure AI infrastructure. Captain Jeffry Findlay of NAS Lemoore emphasized the project’s role in enhancing mission-critical operations, while Ameresco’s President Nicole Bulgarino highlighted the company’s leadership in energy resilience for AI workloads.

Data Processing & Outsourced Services Sector Gains Momentum
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector, where Ameresco operates, has seen mixed performance. While Ameresco’s stock soars on AI infrastructure news, sector leader Equinix (EQIX) trades down 0.37%, reflecting divergent momentum. The sector’s growth is driven by AI demand and federal AI Action Plan initiatives, but high volatility remains a concern. Ameresco’s focus on energy-optimized data centers differentiates it from peers like EQIX, which faces pressure from cloud migration costs. The sector’s 14.6% CAGR in internal audit outsourcing and rising demand for AI-ready infrastructure suggest long-term tailwinds, though short-term volatility will depend on regulatory and execution risks.

Options Playbook: Call Options and ETFs for AI-Driven Volatility
• 200-day MA: $18.21 (below current price) • RSI: 61.33 (neutral) • MACD: 1.68 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: $19.13–$27.79 (current price near upper band)

Ameresco’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with the stock trading near its 52-week high. The RSI at 61.33 indicates no overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram (-0.05) hints at fading momentum. Key support at $24.18 and resistance at $27.79 define the immediate range. The options chain shows two standout contracts:

• AMRC20250919C25 (Call, $25 strike, 9/19 expiry): IV 73.11%, leverage 12.55%, delta 0.6865, theta -0.1127, gamma 0.1060, turnover $16,645. High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a 5% upside move (target $27.83), yielding a 125.81% return.
• AMRC20251017C30 (Call, $30 strike, 10/17 expiry): IV 80.01%, leverage 17.68%, delta 0.3634, theta -0.0415, gamma 0.0545, turnover $339. Moderate delta and high IV position this for a 5% move (target $27.83), with a 148.33% payoff potential.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize AMRC20250919C25 for immediate exposure, while AMRC20251017C30 offers a longer-term play. Watch for a break above $27.79 to confirm bullish momentum.

Backtest Ameresco Stock Performance
Below is the event-study back-test you requested. Key assumptions we auto-completed for you (and why):1. Definition of “9 % intraday surge” • Interpreted as a daily close-to-previous-close gain ≥ 9 %. • Reason: Daily OHLC data are the highest-frequency series all tools can access consistently; this captures the typical “big-up day” traders monitor.2. Back-test window • 2022-01-01 – 2025-09-09, matching your “from 2022 to now”.3. Analytics horizon inside the engine • ±30 trading days around each surge (engine default). • Keeps enough data to observe short-term drift without diluting the sample.4. Sample size found: 30 events.Headline findings• Immediate follow-through is weak: median next-day return ≈ -0.8 %, win-rate 43 %. • Momentum improves after the first week: day 7-10 average ≈ 4-5 %, win-rate ~57-67 %. • Peak average excess return ≈ 6.6 % around day 17, but statistical significance is low (small sample + high volatility). • By day 30 the gain decays to ≈ 3.2 %. • No clear evidence of a robust post-surge edge; consider combining with filters (volume, news, macro) before trading.You can explore all curves and tables interactively in the module below.Feel free to drill down or let me know if you’d like additional filters, a different profit-taking rule, or a full trading-strategy back-test based on these signals.

Ameresco’s AI Bet: Ride the Wave or Ride the Volatility?
Ameresco’s 9.18% surge is a high-stakes bet on AI-driven energy infrastructure, with the Navy partnership offering both upside and execution risks. While the stock’s technicals suggest a bullish near-term outlook, its beta of 2.49 and Altman Z-Score of 1.13 highlight volatility and financial fragility. Sector leader Equinix’s 0.37% decline underscores the sector’s mixed dynamics. Investors should monitor the $24.18 support and $27.79 resistance levels, with a 5% upside scenario favoring call options like AMRC20250919C25. For now, the AI infrastructure narrative is strong—aggressive bulls should target a break above $27.79 to validate the move.