Ameresco Surges 1.17% on $197M Navy Contract—What’s Next?

Summary
• Ameresco (AMRC) jumps 1.17% to $38.70, hitting a 52-week high of $39.70
• $197M energy contract with U.S. Naval Research Laboratory drives intraday volatility
• Turnover surges to 393,501 shares, signaling renewed institutional interest

Ameresco’s shares are trading at a 1.17% intraday gain as the stock reacts to a landmark $197 million energy infrastructure deal with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. The contract, expected to deliver $362 million in savings over 21 years, has pushed AMRC to a 52-week high of $39.70, despite a 9.6% pullback earlier this month. With a dynamic P/E ratio of 138.17 and a 78.96 RSI reading, the stock is testing key technical levels amid mixed analyst sentiment.

Navy Contract Drives AMRC’s Intraday Rally
Ameresco’s 1.17% intraday gain is directly tied to its $197 million Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). The project, which includes modernizing steam and chilled water systems at NRL’s Washington, D.C. campus and Chesapeake Bay Detachment, is projected to generate $12.5 million in annual savings once operational. The deal, announced on October 6, 2025, was already included in Ameresco’s awarded backlog as of June 30, 2025, but its execution has now triggered a short-term price surge. The contract’s 21-year savings horizon and alignment with the Inflation Reduction Act’s infrastructure goals have reinforced investor confidence in the company’s long-term value proposition.

Options Playbook: AMRC20251017C40 and AMRC20260417C40 Lead the Charge
• 200-day average: $18.71 (below current price) • RSI: 78.96 (overbought) • MACD: 3.35 (bullish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: $39.63 (upper), $31.90 (middle) • Gamma: 0.076 (high sensitivity to price swings)

With AMRC trading near its 52-week high of $39.70, the stock is in a short-term bullish phase, supported by a 3.35 MACD and 78.96 RSI. Key resistance lies at $39.63 (Bollinger upper band), while the 200-day average at $18.71 remains a critical long-term support level. For leveraged exposure, the AMRC20251017C40 call option (strike: $40, expiration: Oct 17) and AMRC20260417C40 (strike: $40, expiration: April 17, 2026) stand out.

AMRC20251017C40
• Code: AMRC20251017C40 • Type: Call • Strike: $40 • Expiration: 2025-10-17 • IV: 76.79% (moderate volatility) • Leverage: 25.01% (high) • Delta: 0.436 (moderate directional bias) • Theta: -0.1509 (rapid time decay) • Gamma: 0.0762 (high sensitivity) • Turnover: 5,797 (liquid)
• Why it works: High leverage and gamma make this option ideal for a short-term bullish bet. A 5% upside to $40.64 would yield a 15.7% payoff (max(0, 40.64 - 40) = $0.64).

AMRC20260417C40
• Code: AMRC20260417C40 • Type: Call • Strike: $40 • Expiration: 2026-04-17 • IV: 82.87% (elevated volatility) • Leverage: 4.29% (moderate) • Delta: 0.612 (strong directional bias) • Theta: -0.0264 (slow decay) • Gamma: 0.0164 (moderate sensitivity) • Turnover: 22,600 (high liquidity)
• Why it works: This longer-dated option balances leverage with time decay, offering exposure to AMRC’s potential 21-year savings-driven growth. A 5% upside to $40.64 would yield a 1.6% payoff (max(0, 40.64 - 40) = $0.64).

Aggressive bulls should target AMRC20251017C40 into a break above $39.63.

Backtest Ameresco Stock Performance
I attempted to pull Ameresco’s daily open/close price data so we can identify every session where the stock gained at least 1 % intraday (close ÷ open ≥ 1.01) between 2022-01-01 and today. However, the data-retrieval call returned an empty result, which usually means the ticker format (or data source) wasn’t recognized.To move forward, could you please confirm one of the following?1. Ticker format • Is “AMRC” (without the “.N” suffix) the correct symbol for Ameresco in your data source? • If your data provider uses a different convention (e.g., “AMRC.N”, “AMRC US”, or an ISIN), please let me know.2. Date range or data source constraints • If you have access restrictions to intraday/open-close data, we can shorten the period or use another source.3. Provide the price file yourself • If you already have a CSV/Excel with daily open and close prices from 2022-01-01 onward, upload it and I’ll use it to generate the event dates and run the back-test immediately.Once we resolve the ticker/data-source issue, I’ll:• Pull the daily price series. • Detect every day the close was at least 1 % above the open. • Run an event back-test (e.g., 1–, 5–, 10-day forward returns, optimal holding period, etc.) and present the full statistics with an interactive chart module.Let me know which option works best, and we’ll proceed right away.

Position for AMRC’s Next Move—Here’s How
Ameresco’s rally is underpinned by a high-impact contract with the NRL, but the stock’s 78.96 RSI and 138.17 P/E ratio suggest caution. While the AMRC20251017C40 and AMRC20260417C40 options offer compelling leverage, investors must monitor the 200-day average at $18.71 and the sector leader Fluor (FLR), which is down 1.88% today. A sustained break above $39.63 could validate the 52-week high, but a pullback to $31.90 (Bollinger middle band) would test near-term resolve. Aggressive bulls should target AMRC20251017C40 into a break above $39.63.