Ameresco's 2025 Earnings Forecast: Is the Market Underestimating Its Long-Term Value?

Ameresco, a leading player in the renewable energy sector, has delivered a standout performance in Q3 2025, with revenue rising 5% year-on-year to $526.0 million and adjusted EBITDA surging 13% to $70.4 million, according to Ameresco's Q3 press release. These results, which exceeded analyst expectations for revenue ($520.5 million) and earnings per share ($0.30), have driven a 3.45% stock price increase in the days following the report, as noted in the earnings call transcript. Yet, as the company reaffirms its 2025 guidance-10% revenue growth and 20% adjusted EBITDA growth-the question remains: Is the market underestimating Ameresco's long-term value in the context of a rapidly evolving renewable energy landscape?

Sector Momentum and Strategic Positioning

The renewable energy sector is experiencing a tailwind from two key forces: corporate demand for clean energy and global policy shifts. Tech giants like Meta and Tesla are accelerating investments in renewable infrastructure, with Meta partnering on 385 MWac solar projects in Louisiana, according to Polaris' Q3 results and Tesla securing $2 billion in battery supply from Samsung SDI, as reported in a Maritime Executive report. Meanwhile, European markets are adapting subsidy models to stabilize offshore wind and solar growth, with the Netherlands allocating €1 billion for 2 GW of wind farms and Germany pivoting to Contracts for Difference (CfD) mechanisms, as detailed in the same Maritime Executive report.

Ameresco's strategic alignment with these trends is evident. The company has secured $450 million in new project awards in Q3 2025, boosting its backlog to $5.1 billion, according to the earnings call transcript. Notable projects include a 50 MW battery energy storage system for Nucor and a 40 MW firm power plant for Hawaiian Electric, both of which address the growing demand for grid resilience (details discussed in the earnings call transcript). Additionally, its partnership with Republic Services to launch a renewable natural gas (RNG) facility at Lee County Landfill has reduced carbon emissions by 61,000 metric tons annually, according to the Business Wire release, underscoring its role in decarbonizing industrial operations.

Competitive Edge and Earnings Momentum

Ameresco's performance outpaces many peers in the construction and engineering segment. While Quanta Services reported 17.5% year-on-year revenue growth and beat estimates by 2.8%, and FTAI Infrastructure saw a 68.7% revenue increase (though it missed estimates by 4%), Ameresco has consistently exceeded revenue forecasts by an average of 8.5% over the past two years, according to a TradingView preview. This resilience is partly attributed to its diversified business lines-Projects, Energy Assets, and O&M-each posting double-digit growth in Q3 2025, as noted in Ameresco's Q3 press release.

However, the company's profitability metrics remain a concern. Ameresco's net margin of 2.72% and return on equity (ROE) of 1.26% lag behind industry averages, according to a Sahm Capital analysis. In contrast, Quanta's Q2 2025 revenue surged 21.1% year-on-year, and it raised full-year guidance, as highlighted in a Q2 earnings review. Despite these challenges, Ameresco's stock has gained 5.9% over the past month, which suggests investor confidence in its long-term growth potential (as noted in the TradingView preview).

Valuation and Policy Risks

Ameresco's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36.3 is above the median for the Construction & Engineering industry, according to an AAII article, reflecting elevated expectations for future earnings. While this premium could be justified by its 7.83% revenue growth rate (outpacing the Industrials sector average, per Sahm Capital), the company's weak profitability metrics raise questions about sustainability. Analysts project 3.9% revenue growth for Q4 2025, a slowdown from the 49.4% growth in the same quarter of 2024 (per the TradingView preview), which may temper enthusiasm.

U.S. policy shifts under the Trump administration, including the cancellation of programs supporting solar and electric vehicles, pose additional risks, as described in a Futunn article. However, the sector's growth is being driven by private-sector demand-particularly from AI-driven energy needs-as evidenced by Brookfield's $5 billion investment in Bloom Energy's fuel cells for data centers (reported in the same Futunn article). Ameresco's expansion into data center resilience infrastructure and battery storage positions it to capitalize on this trend.

Conclusion: A Case for Long-Term Optimism

While Ameresco's valuation appears stretched relative to its current profitability, its strategic positioning in high-growth areas-resilience infrastructure, RNG, and energy storage-aligns with structural trends in the renewable energy sector. The company's ability to secure large-scale projects, exceed revenue estimates, and diversify its revenue streams suggests that the market may be underestimating its long-term value. For investors willing to tolerate near-term profitability challenges, Ameresco's earnings momentum and sector tailwinds present a compelling case for inclusion in a diversified clean energy portfolio.