Amer Sports Surges 3.85% as Bullish Candle Signals Reversal Following December Bearish Candles

Amer Sports (AS) closed the most recent session with a 3.85% gain, driven by a bullish candlestick with a high of 37.28 and close at 37.19. This follows a sequence of bearish candles in early December, suggesting a potential reversal. Key support levels are evident around 35.81–36.66, while resistance aligns with the recent high of 37.28. The candlestick pattern implies a breakout attempt, though volume remains mixed—high on 12/8 but lower on subsequent days, hinting at potential consolidation.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action features a strong bullish candle on 12/8, contrasting with prior bearish momentum. A potential "bullish engulfing" pattern may form if the 12/8 candle closes above the 12/5 high of 36.615. Key support levels at 35.81 and 35.77 (12/5 and 12/4 lows) are critical for trend continuation. Resistance is clustered around 37.28 (12/8 high) and 37.455 (12/3 high).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA likely resides in the mid-30s, while the 200-day MA is lower, indicating a long-term uptrend. The current price above both MAs reinforces bullish bias. However, the 100-day MA may act as a dynamic support/resistance. If the 50-day MA crosses above the 100-day MA, it would confirm a short-term uptrend. A close below the 200-day MA could signal bearish divergence.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has likely turned positive, with the line crossing above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. The KDJ indicator (stochastic oscillator) may show overbought conditions (K > 80), suggesting a potential pullback. A bearish divergence in the MACD (rising price but declining histogram) could warn of a near-term correction.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the 12/8 close near the upper band. This suggests strong short-term momentum but also increased likelihood of a reversion to the mean. If the bands contract before this breakout, it may indicate a period of consolidation prior to a directional move.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume surged on 12/8 (4.12M shares), validating the bullish move. However, volume declined on subsequent sessions, which may indicate weakening buying pressure. A sustained increase in volume during an upward trend would confirm sustainability, while a divergence (rising price, falling volume) could signal exhaustion.
RSI
The RSI is likely in overbought territory (>70), consistent with the recent rally. While this does not guarantee a reversal, it highlights elevated risk. A failure to break above 70 or a divergence (lower highs in RSI vs. price) may precede a correction.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key retracement levels from the May 2025 low (24.25) to the August high (41.56) include 37.19 (38.2%) and 32.90 (50%). The current price near 37.19 aligns with a critical retracement level, suggesting potential for a pullback or continuation. A break above 37.455 (12/3 high) would target 38.2% (37.19) and then 61.8% (33.43).
Confluence and Divergences
Confluence is strong at 37.19, where candlestick, Fibonacci, and RSI concur as a critical level. Divergences between MACD and price could emerge if the RSI fails to hold above 70. The volume pattern remains mixed, with high conviction on 12/8 but weaker follow-through.

Probabilistic Outlook
The near-term bias remains bullish if 37.19 holds, with targets at 37.455 and beyond. However, overbought indicators and potential MACD divergence suggest a 60–70% probability of a consolidation phase. A breakdown below 35.81 would invalidate the bullish case, increasing bearish risk. Investors should monitor volume dynamics and RSI behavior for confirmation of trend sustainability.