Amer Sports Plummets 4.8% on Earnings Optimism: A Bearish Reversal Amidst Record Guidance Hike?

Summary
• Amer Sports (AS) plunges 4.8% to $35.70, erasing $1.8B in market cap
• Q2 revenue surges 23% to $1.24B, margin expansion lifts adjusted operating profit 130%
• Guidance raised to $0.77–$0.82 EPS, but omni-comp sales lag Wall Street forecasts

Amidst a blockbuster earnings report and aggressive guidance revision, Amer Sports’ shares have plunged to session lows, trading 4.8% below its 52-week high of $40.21. The stock’s sharp reversal defies its 23% revenue surge and 35% growth in the Outdoor Performance segment, as investors weigh management changes, tariff risks, and decelerating omni-comp sales in key brands.

Earnings Optimism vs. Execution Concerns
Amer Sports’ 4.8% intraday decline reflects a tug-of-war between bullish fundamentals and bearish execution risks. While the company raised full-year revenue and EPS guidance to $0.77–$0.82, citing Salomon’s 35% growth and Arc’teryx’s 23% revenue surge, the Technical Apparel segment’s omni-comp sales growth of 15% fell short of the 19% Wall Street expectation. Additionally, the departure of Wilson CEO Joe Dudy and interim leadership transition under CFO Andrew Page have introduced operational uncertainty. The market’s bearish pivot suggests skepticism about sustaining margin expansion amid higher-than-expected U.S. tariffs and potential leadership-driven disruptions at Wilson.

Bearish Positioning with High-Leverage Puts
• 200-day average: 30.13 (well below current price)
• RSI: 47.14 (neutral but trending downward)
• MACD: 0.075 (bearish crossover with signal line at 0.109)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 35.70 (near lower band at 36.32)

Amer Sports’ technicals signal a short-term bearish reversal, with RSI and MACD confirming downward momentum. Key support levels at 35.0 (intraday low) and 33.12 (100D MA) are critical for near-term direction. The 35.70 level is a pivotal psychological threshold; a break below 35.0 could trigger a test of the 32.50 strike. For aggressive bearish positioning, the AS20250919P35 and AS20250919P37.5 puts stand out:

• AS20250919P35 (Put, $35 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 49.03% (mid-range volatility)
- LVR: 22.39% (high leverage)
- Delta: -0.397 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.00987 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.074 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $1.78M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside (34.0): $1.00 (max(0, 35 - 34))
- This contract offers a 22% leverage ratio with moderate delta, ideal for capitalizing on a 1.7% price drop to 34.00.

• AS20250919P37.5 (Put, $37.50 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 50.28% (high volatility)
- LVR: 11.86% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: -0.582 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0002 (negligible time decay)
- Gamma: 0.073 (strong gamma for directional bets)
- Turnover: $2.88M (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% downside (34.0): $3.50 (max(0, 37.5 - 34))
- This put’s high delta and gamma make it a top-tier choice for a 4.5% move to 34.00, with minimal theta erosion.

If 35.00 breaks, AS20250919P35 offers a high-leverage entry; for a deeper bearish play, AS20250919P37.5 targets a 9.3% price drop to 34.00.

Backtest Amer Sports Stock Performance
Perfect Moment (PMNT) experienced a significant intraday drop of 20.21%, which led to a substantial decline in its stock price. Following this event, the stock's performance was mixed over various short and medium-term horizons:1. Short-Term Performance: - The 3-day win rate was relatively high at 40.98%, indicating that the stock price recovered by more than 20% in 3 days. - However, the 10-day win rate dropped to 37.70%, suggesting that while the stock price might have recovered, it took longer to do so. - The 30-day win rate was even lower at 34.43%, indicating that in the medium term, the stock faced continued challenges after the initial plunge.2. Key Support Levels: The stock's ability to hold the $0.290 support level was critical. If this level was breached, it could lead to a retest of the 52-week low at $0.2205.3. Sector Influence: The broader apparel manufacturing sector's weakness, exemplified by Nike's decline, underscored systemic risks that affected PMNT.4. Earnings Indicators: The stock's trading was characterized by extreme volatility, with a dynamic P/E ratio of -0.88 highlighting ongoing earnings struggles.In conclusion, while PMNT had a higher chance of recovery in the short term after the -5% intraday plunge, the overall performance in the following days was mixed, with a higher likelihood of continued volatility and challenges in the medium to long term. Investors should monitor the stock's ability to hold key support levels and remain cautious due to the broader sector's weaknesses.

Short-Term Bear Case: Target 32.50 with 11.4% Downside Potential
Amer Sports’ 4.8% decline reflects a short-term bearish reversal despite robust earnings, driven by decelerating omni-comp sales and leadership uncertainty. Key levels to watch: 35.0 (intraday low), 33.12 (100D MA), and 32.50 (next support). The sector leader, NIKE (NKE), is down 0.62%, signaling broader apparel sector caution. Aggressive bears should target AS20250919P35 if 35.00 breaks, with a 11.4% downside target to 32.50. For a longer-term play, monitor the 30.00 strike (AS20251017P30) as a 16.5% downside scenario. Act now if 35.00 is breached—the 32.50 level could trigger a 11.4% move in 4 trading days.