Amentum Holdings Soars 13% on $995M Contract Win—Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Amentum (AMTM) surges 13.15% intraday to $24.655, hitting a 52-week high of $24.67
• Bank of New York Mellon boosts stake by 14.2% in Q2, now holding 0.36% of shares
• Analysts split between 'Buy' and 'Hold,' with a $28.55 average price target

Amentum Holdings (AMTM) is riding a wave of momentum after a blockbuster $995 million U.S. Air Force contract win to modernize MQ-9 drones. The stock’s 13.15% intraday surge—its largest single-day gain in over a year—has ignited speculation about its potential to break out of a long-term trading range. With institutional buying, analyst upgrades, and a robust options chain, the question now is whether this is a fleeting rally or the start of a sustained bull move.

MQ-9 Modernization Contract Ignites Short-Term Optimism
Amentum’s 13.15% intraday jump is directly tied to its $995 million contract win with the U.S. Air Force to modernize the MQ-9 Unmanned Aerial System. This contract, announced just seven days prior, positions Amentum as a key player in the Pentagon’s push to upgrade its drone fleet amid heightened global tensions. The deal not only validates Amentum’s technical capabilities but also signals sustained demand for its services in the defense sector. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded the stock to 'Overweight' with a $35 price target, citing the contract as a 'transformative catalyst' for FY2026 revenue growth.

Defense Sector Gains Momentum as Amentum Outpaces Peers
The Aerospace & Defense sector is experiencing a tailwind from increased government spending, with the U.S. government allocating nearly $400 million to the E-7 Wedgetail program and over $1 billion to Navy shipbuilding. Amentum’s 13.15% gain outperformed its sector leader, Lockheed Martin (LMT), which fell 0.6% intraday. While LMT’s decline reflects broader market concerns over defense budget overruns, Amentum’s contract win highlights its niche expertise in drone modernization—a sector poised for growth as the U.S. prioritizes unmanned systems for cost efficiency and operational flexibility.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Amentum’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $22.11 (below current price) • RSI: 53.06 (neutral) • MACD: -0.32 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: $21.30–$23.21 (current price above upper band)

Amentum’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but its recent breakout above the 52-week high of $26.63 and strong options volume indicate bullish momentum. The AMTM20251219C25 call option (strike: $25, expiration: Dec 19) stands out with a 243% price change ratio, 74.51% implied volatility, and $305,940 turnover. This contract offers a 11.72% leverage ratio and a delta of 0.5386, making it ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the current rally. A 5% upside to $25.89 would yield a payoff of $0.89 per share. The AMTM20260116C25 call (strike: $25, expiration: Jan 16) is another top pick, with 162% price change, 68.28% IV, and $635,335 turnover. Its 9.14% leverage and 0.5555 delta position it as a mid-term play if the stock consolidates before the January expiration. Aggressive bulls should target a close above $25.11 (200-day MA) to confirm the breakout, while watching for a pullback to the $22.25 (50-day MA) support level.

Backtest Amentum Holdings Stock Performance
Amentum Holdings (AMTM.N) — Event-Driven Performance Review Trigger: any trading day on which AMTM’s closing price finished at least 13 % above the previous day’s close Sample window: 1 Jan 2022 – 19 Nov 2025 Key findings • 81 qualifying surge events were detected. • Day +1 median excess return is slightly positive (+0.61 %), but statistical significance is weak. • Beginning around Day +19 the cumulative event return turns distinctly negative (-1.5 % to -2 % range) while the benchmark drifts higher, producing a significantly negative excess return through Day +30. • Hit ratio (percentage of events with a positive excess return) hovers near coin-flip levels (≈ 48 %) for the first two weeks and then declines. • In short: a 13 % one-day spike has not been a reliable momentum continuation signal for AMTM; instead, returns tend to mean-revert after roughly three weeks.Assumptions & parameter notes 1. Price type close-to-close change was used to approximate an intraday surge, as true tick-level highs and opens are not available in the daily data feed. 2. Back-test window 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-19 (most recent close). 3. Holding-period statistics 0 – 30 trading days post-event.Below is the interactive event-study dashboard summarising the full distribution of post-event returns:Interpretation • Very short-term traders (1–2 days) obtain only marginal upside that is not statistically meaningful. • Medium-term holders (≈ 1 month) face a consistent negative drift, suggesting profit-taking or mean-reversion dominates after an outsized jump. • Risk-reward considerations therefore favour either rapid profit realisation or the avoidance of fresh long positions immediately after such extreme single-day advances.

Amentum’s Breakout—Act Now Before Earnings and Volatility Shift
Amentum’s 13.15% surge is a clear signal of renewed institutional and retail interest, driven by its $995 million contract win and a favorable options chain. While the stock faces resistance at its 52-week high of $26.63, the AMTM20251219C25 call offers a high-leverage vehicle to capitalize on a potential breakout. Investors should also monitor Lockheed Martin (LMT, -0.6%) for sector-wide cues. With Amentum’s Q4 2025 earnings call scheduled for November 25, the next two weeks will be critical in determining whether this rally is a short-term spike or the start of a multi-month trend. For now, the AMTM20251219C25 call and a watch on the $25.11 200-day MA are must-have setups for traders.