AMD Surges into Top 10 Trading Volume as China AI Exports Resume Navigating 15 Export Fee and Legal Scrutiny

Market Snapshot

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) experienced a notable surge in trading volume on December 5, 2025, with a total trading value of $7.25 billion, marking a 36.86% increase from the previous day. This placed AMD among the top 10 most actively traded stocks in the market. Despite this robust volume, the stock closed the day with a modest gain of 0.92%, reflecting a mixed market response to recent developments. The volume spike suggests heightened investor interest, potentially driven by strategic announcements from the company and broader sector dynamics. However, the limited price movement indicates that the market may be weighing both near-term challenges and long-term opportunities tied to AMD’s business strategy.

Key Drivers

AMD’s decision to resume shipments of its MI308 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China, contingent on paying a 15% U.S. export fee, emerged as a central theme in recent coverage. CEO Lisa Su confirmed at a Wired conference that the company has secured licenses for these shipments and is prepared to comply with the Trump administration’s fee structure. This move follows a broader August agreement between the administration and semiconductor firms, which allows limited chip exports to China in exchange for the levy. While Su emphasized AMD’s willingness to pay the fee, legal experts have raised concerns about the arrangement’s constitutionality, citing the U.S. Constitution’s ban on export taxes. The uncertainty surrounding the legality of this policy adds complexity to AMD’s operational planning and highlights the broader geopolitical tensions shaping the semiconductor industry.

The resumption of MI308 exports to China is significant for AMD, as the company previously warned that losing access to this market could cost it approximately $800 million in annual revenue. The decision to prioritize compliance with U.S. export controls—despite China’s simultaneous push to reduce reliance on foreign technology—underscores AMD’s strategic balancing act. Recent Chinese directives have mandated state-funded data centers to adopt domestically produced AI chips, further limiting opportunities for U.S. firms. This shift in China’s tech policy poses a direct challenge to AMD’s market access, even as the company seeks to maintain its presence through modified, export-compliant chip designs like the MI308.

Compounding these challenges, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced the SAFE CHIPS Act on the same day, aiming to impose stricter restrictions on advanced chip exports to China. This legislative development introduces additional regulatory hurdles for AMD and other semiconductor firms, potentially delaying or limiting their ability to navigate the complex export landscape. The act’s focus on curbing the flow of high-performance chips to China aligns with broader U.S. efforts to mitigate national security risks but risks undermining the revenue streams of companies like AMD, which rely on China as a critical market. Su’s comments at the Wired conference signaled a pragmatic approach to these evolving restrictions, emphasizing AMD’s readiness to adapt to the regulatory environment while securing necessary licenses.

Beyond immediate export challenges, AMD’s long-term growth prospects remain tied to its AI and semiconductor partnerships. The company highlighted a multiyear collaboration with OpenAI, which could generate over $100 billion in revenue as it begins supplying next-generation Instinct GPUs starting in 2026. This partnership, along with strong third-quarter earnings (revenue of $9.25 billion and fourth-quarter guidance of $9.6 billion excluding China sales), positions AMD to capitalize on the expanding AI hardware market. However, the exclusion of China-related revenue from its Q4 forecast reflects ongoing uncertainty about the pace of regulatory approvals and market access.

The interplay of these factors—geopolitical trade tensions, domestic legislative actions, and strategic business partnerships—has created a volatile environment for AMD. While the company’s willingness to pay the 15% export fee signals a commitment to maintaining its presence in China, the broader regulatory and policy landscape remains fraught with unpredictability. Investors appear to be cautiously optimistic, as evidenced by AMD’s year-to-date gain of 79.04% and a moderate buy consensus among analysts. However, the stock’s short-term performance continues to face pressure from macroeconomic concerns, including uncertainty around interest rate cuts and broader market corrections in the tech sector.

In summary, AMD’s recent developments reflect a strategic navigation of a complex and evolving market. The company’s ability to balance compliance with U.S. export policies, adapt to China’s shifting tech landscape, and leverage long-term partnerships will be critical in determining its future trajectory. While immediate challenges persist, AMD’s focus on innovation and market access in key growth areas like AI positions it to capitalize on long-term opportunities despite the current uncertainties.