AMD Options Signal Bullish Breakout Potential: Focus on $240 Call OI and $180 Put Risk as AI Hype Builds

• AMD trades at $210.12, down 0.3% from $210.78 after opening at $212.46
• Options data shows 16,119 open interest at the $240 call (this Friday’s expiry) vs. 18,538 puts at $180
• Block trades reveal large institutional bets: 1,500 calls bought at $165 (Sep 19 expiry) and 1,600 puts at $155

Here’s the takeaway: AMD’s options market is locked in a tug-of-war between short-term bears and long-term bulls. The stock sits near its 52-week low but remains above critical 30D support at $220.54. With AI-driven demand narratives heating up and a put/call ratio of 0.96 (nearly balanced), today’s setup offers a high-probability breakout play—if you know where to look.

Where Institutional Money Is Flowing: Calls at $240, Puts at $180

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. This Friday’s $240 call (AMD20251219C240) has 16,119 open contracts—the second-highest OI after the $320 call. That’s not just noise: it means 16,119 traders are betting AMD will punch through $240 before expiry. Meanwhile, the $180 put (AMD20251219P180) has 18,538 open puts, showing downside protection is being priced in for a 19% drop from current levels.

Block trades add intrigue. The largest recent bet? A 1,500-lot call purchase at $165 (AMD20250919C165) in September. That’s like buying a fire extinguisher for a stock that’s been burning—positioning for a rebound. Conversely, the 1,600 puts bought at $155 (AMD20250919P155) suggest some players expect a deeper correction. The message? Volatility is coming, and big players are hedging both ways.

Earnings Beats and AI Hype: Why the Options Playbook Makes Sense

AMD’s fundamentals are a mixed bag. Recent quarterly results beat estimates (1.20 EPS vs. 1.17 expected), and institutional ownership hit 71.34% after heavy Q2 buying. But the stock’s 18.6% drop over 21 days reflects fears about Oracle’s CAPEX struggles and AI competition. Here’s where the options data lines up: the $240 call OI suggests traders are pricing in a rebound off current lows, while the $180 put OI reflects anxiety about a worst-case scenario.

The Bollinger Bands also tell a tale. AMD is trading near the lower band at $198.29, but the 30D MA at $228.95 acts as a gravitational pull. If the stock closes above $221.66 (30D resistance), the $240 call could see explosive action. Conversely, a break below $209.06 (intraday low) would validate the $180 put’s bearish case.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy AMD20251219C240 calls at $2.50–$3.00. Target $250 for 33–50% gains if AMD closes above $221.66 by expiry.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy AMD20251219P180 puts at $5.00–$6.00. Protect against a 19% drop if the stock breaks below $209.06.

For stock buyers:

• Entry: Consider buying near $220.54 (30D support) if the price holds. Target $240.39 (Bollinger upper band) as a key resistance level.
• Stop-Loss: Exit below $209.06 to limit downside risk.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Near-Term Risks

The next 72 hours will test AMD’s resolve. With BNP Paribas analysts bullish on 2026 AI demand and Oracle’s CAPEX issues lingering, the stock could swing either way. The $240 call OI suggests a 14.2% move is being priced in—exactly the gap between current price and that strike. But don’t ignore the $180 put’s bearish signal: a 14.5% drop would test AMD’s core fundamentals.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction setup. If you’re bullish on AI’s long-term impact, the $240 call offers leverage. If you’re wary of near-term risks, the $180 put provides a safety net. Either way, the options market is giving us a roadmap—now it’s up to AMD to follow it.