AMD Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Trade Setups for Dec 26–Jan 2 Expiry

• AMD trades at $214.74, down 0.1% from its 52-week high, but sits above its 30D MA of $220.65.
• Call open interest dominates at $220–$230 strikes (this Friday’s top OTM calls), while puts cluster at $185–$200.
• Block trades hint at institutional positioning: A $991,500 call block (AMD20251017C165) and a $262,400 put buy (AMD20250919P155) stand out.

Here’s the takeaway: Options data and technicals align for a bullish bias, but the stock’s proximity to key support levels means volatility could swing either way. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Call Clusters and Institutional Signals

AMD’s options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. This Friday’s top OTM calls are stacked at $220 (OI: 12,106), $225 (12,956), and $230 (10,352), while puts cluster at $185 (15,224) and $200 (6,042). The put/call ratio for open interest is 0.95, favoring calls—a sign traders are pricing in a potential breakout above $220.

But here’s the twist: The block trade AMD20251017C165 (a $165 call expiring Oct 17) saw $991,500 in turnover. While the trade direction is listed as “unknown,” the sheer size suggests institutional players are hedging or scaling up positions. Combine this with the heavy call OI at $220–$230, and it feels like a waiting game for a catalyst—like the rumored Alibaba order of 40,000–50,000 MI308 chips.

News Flow: China AI Demand vs. Insider Selling

Recent headlines paint a mixed picture. On one hand, AMD’s AI chips are in the spotlight: Analysts raised price targets to $175–$185 after U.S. policy shifts reopened China sales. On the other, insiders sold $40 million in shares, including CEO Lisa Su’s $26.9 million exit. The market is parsing whether this selling is a sign of confidence (divesting after gains) or caution (anticipating near-term risks).

The Alibaba rumor, though unconfirmed, is a wildcard. If true, it could push AMD’s price toward the $220–$230 call-heavy zone. But until that order materializes, the stock’s technicals—like the RSI hovering near 50 and the MACD flattening—suggest consolidation before a breakout.

Actionable Trade Ideas

For options traders, the most compelling setup is a bull call spread using the $220 and $225 strikes expiring Jan 2 (AMD20260102C220 and AMD20260102C225). With the stock at $214.74, buying the $220 call and selling the $225 call captures upside if AMD surges toward $225+ (a 6% move). The block trade at $220 also implies liquidity, reducing slippage risk.

For stock buyers, consider entry near $213–$215 if the price holds above its 30D MA of $220.65. A break above $216.26 (today’s high) could trigger a rally toward $220, where heavy call OI might create a self-fulfilling prophecy. A stop-loss below $212.28 (today’s low) would protect against a breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon

AMD’s path hinges on two factors: confirmation of the Alibaba deal and the stock’s ability to hold above $213.91 (30D support). If the news checks out, the $220–$230 call cluster could ignite a parabolic move. But if the stock dips below $212.28, the puts at $200 and $185 might gain traction, especially with the 200D MA at $159.17 still a distant floor.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade for bulls, but don’t ignore the risks. AMD’s story is still being written—and the next chapter starts with a clear breakout or breakdown.