AMD Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes at $225-$235 and $200 Put Hedge as AI Export Clarity Looms

• AMD trades at $216.65, down 0.44% intraday, with heavy call open interest at $225-$235 strikes.
• Options data shows a 0.95 put/call ratio, favoring bullish positioning, while RSI (28.45) hints at oversold conditions.
• CEO Lisa Su’s comments on China export taxes and HPE’s Helios AI partnership validate AMD’s growth narrative.

Here’s the takeaway: Options market sentiment and technicals align for a potential upside breakout, but risks linger around regulatory headwinds and valuation concerns. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Call OI Clusters and Institutional Bets

AMD’s options chain is packed with call open interest at $225 ($20,773 contracts), $230 ($12,003), and $235 ($11,912) for Friday’s expiration. This suggests traders are pricing in a short-term rally above $219.12 (intraday high). The $200 put ($12,059 OI) acts as a hedge, but its lower volume vs. calls signals conviction in the upside.

Block trades add intrigue: A 1,500-lot buy call (AMD20250919C165) in late September and recent HPE/Vultr partnerships show institutional confidence. However, the $145 put ($7,322 OI) for Friday’s expiry hints at extreme bearishness—likely speculative bets, not core positioning.

News Flow: AI Momentum vs. Regulatory Fog

AMD’s Q3 beat ($9.25B revenue, $1.20 EPS) and HPE’s Helios AI platform adoption validate its data center growth. Yet, the 15% tax on China exports remains a wildcard. Lisa Su’s comments at Wired—"we’re ready to comply"—signal preparedness but don’t resolve legal challenges to the tax’s constitutionality.

Analysts are split: Bank of America’s $300 target and Raymond James’ $377 call reflect AI optimism, while Deutsche Bank’s $235 "Hold" warns of overvaluation. The key here is execution—will Helios deployments accelerate revenue, or will export restrictions cap growth?

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Friday, Puts as Insurance

• Options Play: Buy AMD20251205C225 (strike $225) or AMD20251205C230 (strike $230) for Friday expiry. Targets: $235+ (call breakeven at $225-230). Risk: Close below $214.57 (intraday low) invalidates the setup.
• Stock Play: Consider entry near $214.57 (support level) with a first target at $228 (middle Bollinger Band) and a stop below $204.99 (30D support).
• Hedge: Buy AMD20251205P200 (strike $200) for downside protection if news turns negative.

Volatility on the Horizon

AMD’s technicals and options data paint a clear picture: The market is pricing in a short-term rebound, driven by AI infrastructure wins and earnings momentum. But the 15% tax debate and valuation multiples (P/E of 106) mean volatility isn’t going away.

Bottom line: If AMD holds above $214.57, the $225-$235 calls could be your best bet. But keep a tight stop and watch for regulatory updates—this stock is dancing on a tightrope between AI euphoria and geopolitical reality.