AMD Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid AI Hype: Key Strikes to Watch for Breakouts

• AMD’s stock nosedived 5.8% today, trading at $241.45, despite a 36% revenue surge in Q3.
• Options market shows heavy call open interest at $270 and $300 strikes, while puts pile up at $240 and $230.
• Block trades hint at big money positioning for October 2025, with $1M+ moves on $165 calls and $160 puts.
• The stock’s 62.5 RSI and bullish Kline pattern suggest a rebound could be brewing.

Here’s the deal: AMD’s options market is screaming bullish—but with a side of caution. The put/call ratio is nearly balanced (0.94), but the heavy call open interest at $270 and $300 (even for next Friday’s expirations) shows traders are betting on a rebound. Meanwhile, the block trades at $165 calls and $160 puts signal big players are hedging or scaling positions for long-term AI bets. Let’s break this down.

Bullish Calls vs. Defensive Puts: What the Options Are Telling Us

The options chain is a chessboard of expectations. For this Friday’s expirations, the top call open interest is at $270 (25,746 contracts) and $300 (20,793), while puts dominate at $240 (29,540) and $230 (28,899). This isn’t just noise—it’s a tug-of-war between bulls eyeing a rebound and bears bracing for a drop.

Think of it like a seesaw. The calls above $270 suggest traders expect AMD to reclaim its recent highs (it hit $273.08 on the Bollinger Bands upper band). But the puts at $240 and $230 act as a safety net for those worried about support breaking at $235.75 (today’s intraday low). The key takeaway? The market is pricing in a range-bound battle—with both sides ready to pounce.

Now, the block trades add intrigue. A $991,500 bet on the $165 call (expiring October 17, 2025) and a $684,000 put on the $160 strike (October 10, 2025) show big players are locking in positions for the long game. These aren’t just hedges—they’re bets on AMD’s AI-driven future, even if short-term headwinds persist.

The News: AI Hype vs. Real-World Headwinds

AMD’s recent forecast—$9.6B in Q4 revenue—fell short of $9.9B estimates, sending shares down 3% after hours. But here’s the twist: the company’s data center revenue hit $4.3B, and it’s scoring big with OpenAI and Oracle. Lisa Su’s optimism about AI adoption is justified, but the U.S.-China trade war is still a $1.5B drag, and Nvidia’s dominance in AI chips remains a hurdle.

This creates a split-screen scenario. On one hand, the fundamentals (AI deals, 73% PC sales growth) are stellar. On the other, geopolitical risks and production scaling challenges could cap near-term gains. The options market reflects this duality: bullish calls for AI optimism, bearish puts for trade war fears.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

If you’re bullish but cautious, here’s how to play it:

• Options Play: Buy the AMD20251017C270 (this Friday’s $270 call). With 25,746 contracts in open interest, this strike is a magnet for momentum. If AMD rebounds to test the $273 upper band, this call could pay off handsomely. For a longer-term bet, the AMD20251017C290 (290 strike) has 5,304 OI and could benefit from a sustained AI rally.

• Stock Play: Look to buy AMD near $235.75 (today’s low) if it holds. That’s your first support level. A close above $242.21 (middle Bollinger Band) would signal strength. Target zones: $253 (previous open) and $273 (upper band). If it breaks below $235, consider buying the AMD20251017P240 (240 put) to hedge.

• Whale Watch: The block trade on the AMD20250919C165 (165 call) suggests big money is positioning for a late-September pop. If AMD’s AI partnerships gain traction, this could be a low-risk entry.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Risk and Reward

AMD’s story is a classic case of long-term optimism vs. short-term noise. The options market is pricing in a 5–6% move either way by Friday, but the block trades hint at bigger bets for October. Here’s how to stay ahead:

• Monitor the $242.21 middle Bollinger Band as a psychological level. A break above could trigger a rally toward $270.
• Watch the $230 put strike (28,899 OI). If AMD falls below $235, this level could see a buying frenzy.
• Keep an eye on the U.S.-China trade talks. A positive development could unlock $1.5B in revenue and send shares surging.

Bottom line: AMD’s options activity and technicals point to a stock at a crossroads. The AI hype is real, but so are the headwinds. For traders, the sweet spot is buying calls at key strikes while hedging with puts at critical support levels. For investors, patience is key—this is a stock with long-term legs, but the path won’t be smooth. As always, stay nimble and let the data guide your next move.