AMD Analyst Day Preview: Can Lisa Su Rekindle the AI Fire?

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will host its 2025 Financial Analyst Day today at 1 p.m. ET, a highly anticipated event as investors look for CEO Lisa Su to reignite enthusiasm after a sharp slide from late October highs. The presentation follows record quarterly earnings on November 5, where AMD posted revenue and EPS above expectations, raised guidance, and outlined a powerful data center AI growth trajectory—yet the stock reaction was muted amid concerns of valuation and timing. Shares, up more than 100% year-to-date, have pulled back from $267 to around $240, slipping below the 20-day moving average and testing key near-term support. The technical setup adds pressure on Su’s team to deliver meaningful updates on growth targets and product timelines that justify AMD’s premium valuation.

At the heart of today’s event, analysts expect Su to unveil updates to AMD’s artificial intelligence roadmap and long-term financial model. Bank of America, Citi, and Jefferies all flagged the session as a potential catalyst, with consensus expectations centering on an expanded total addressable market (TAM) for data center AI and details on the MI400 and MI450 GPU product families. The event could also include new customer announcements or refined revenue targets, particularly following AMD’s landmark partnership with OpenAI. That deal calls for deploying six gigawatts of AMD GPUs—beginning with one gigawatt of MI450 servers in 2026—potentially delivering more than $100 billion in future revenue. Management may also reaffirm or raise its prior $500 billion AI TAM forecast through 2028, a critical metric for gauging upside potential.

AMD’s November earnings set a high bar. The company reported record revenue of $9.2 billion, up 36% year-over-year and above the $8.8 billion consensus, with EPS of $1.20 versus $1.17 expected. Strength was broad-based: data center revenue surged 22% to $4.3 billion on strong MI350 GPU demand and record server CPU sales, while the client and gaming segment jumped 73% to $4 billion on robust Ryzen and Radeon performance. Free cash flow hit $1.5 billion, and non-GAAP gross margin reached 54%. Guidance for Q4 called for another record quarter, with revenue projected between $9.3–$9.9 billion, implying 25% year-over-year growth and continued momentum in both CPU and GPU demand. Despite the blowout results, shares drifted lower as traders questioned whether the near-term AI pipeline could justify AMD’s 60x forward P/E multiple.

During the earnings call, analysts pressed management on product transitions and customer visibility. Bank of America’s Vivek Arya asked about the MI355-to-MI400 shift and whether AMD could sustain data center growth ahead of the 2026 MI450 launch. Su emphasized “very strong visibility” into continued AI GPU ramping and reiterated that the MI450 and Helios rack-scale systems would drive an inflection in the back half of 2026. AMD is also accelerating its Venice 2-nanometer CPU program for 2026, noting “strongest-ever customer pull” for its next-gen EPYC chips. When asked about supply constraints and power availability, Su said AMD’s ecosystem planning was robust, with major cloud partners securing capacity to meet “very significant growth rates” into 2027.

Today’s Analyst Day is expected to highlight these themes with greater precision. Key areas to watch include: • Updated financial targets, including new long-term revenue or margin goals. • Revisions to AMD’s AI TAM estimate and data center growth CAGR, currently guided toward “tens of billions” in annual AI revenue by 2027. • Details on the MI400 and MI450 series performance, production timing, and customer traction. • Updates to Helios rack-scale architecture and integration of ZT Systems manufacturing with partner Sanmina. • Discussion of PC, gaming, and embedded business trajectories, which together still account for over half of AMD’s revenue base.

Analysts are also looking for new color on profitability. Wedbush’s Matt Bryson said gross margins on AI accelerators could “meaningfully impact” earnings estimates if disclosed. HSBC’s Frank Lee noted that non-AI businesses—still 59% of revenue entering 2026—may face margin headwinds if TSMC raises advanced-node pricing. Both firms expect the real financial payoff from AMD’s AI partnerships to hit in late 2026 through 2027, when OpenAI and Oracle begin scaling MI450 deployments. Bank of America’s Arya sees potential for data center GPU sales to nearly quintuple to $30 billion by 2027, provided AMD executes its rack-scale rollout effectively.

From a valuation standpoint, AMD trades near 9x 2026 revenue estimates of roughly $44 billion—below Nvidia’s multiple but above historical averages for the company. Bulls argue that execution on MI450 and OpenAI orders could justify multiple expansion toward 11x, while skeptics point to timing risk and execution complexity as reasons the market remains cautious. Still, AMD’s forward setup remains one of the strongest in semiconductors, supported by rapid EPYC CPU adoption, expanding AI GPU presence, and new infrastructure partnerships that elevate its status as a credible challenger to Nvidia.

Technically, shares sit in a precarious spot. After bouncing near $244 Monday, the stock remains under its 20-day moving average and vulnerable to a deeper retracement toward $222 if today’s event fails to deliver fresh catalysts. A decisive breakout above $250, by contrast, could restore momentum and reassert AMD as one of the market’s AI bellwethers.

In short, Lisa Su faces a familiar test: convincing investors that AMD’s data center surge is durable, not deferred. The company’s fundamentals are strong, its customer base expanding, and its product pipeline deep—but in an AI market increasingly driven by execution, today’s Analyst Day could determine whether AMD’s 2025 story still commands the multiple it once did.