Amcor's Post-Split Plunge: A 5.9% Intraday Drop Sparks Investor Caution

Summary
• Amcor completes 1-for-5 reverse stock split on January 14, 2026
• AMCR plummets 5.91% to $41.55, hitting a 52-week low of $38.325
• Analysts project 12-month price targets ranging from $9.00 to $11.67, with average at $10.36

Amcor's post-split debut has ignited a sharp selloff, with the stock trading 5.91% lower at $41.55 as of 17:00 ET. The 1-for-5 reverse stock split, intended to attract institutional investors, has instead triggered volatility amid mixed analyst sentiment. With the stock trading below its 52-week high of $52.25 and facing bearish technical indicators, market participants are recalibrating expectations for the global packaging leader.

Reverse Split Sparks Volatility Amid Analyst Divergence
Amcor's 5.91% intraday decline follows the completion of its 1-for-5 reverse stock split, a strategic move aimed at increasing share price to attract institutional capital. While the company emphasized enhanced liquidity and market perception, the immediate post-split reaction reveals investor skepticism. Analysts remain divided: Baird upgraded AMCR to Outperform with a $10 target, citing synergy potential from the Berry Global acquisition, while Wells Fargo cut its price target to $9. The stock's sharp drop suggests market participants are pricing in execution risks and uncertain demand for the newly adjusted shares.

Paper & Packaging Sector Sinks with AMCR's Drag
The Paper & Packaging sector, led by International Paper (IP), has mirrored AMCR's bearish momentum. IP fell 0.89% intraday, reflecting broader industry caution. While AMCR's post-split volatility is acute, the sector's underperformance underscores persistent challenges in packaging demand and margin pressures. AMCR's 5.91% drop outpaces the sector's decline, indicating its reverse split has amplified near-term uncertainty compared to peers.

Bearish Options Playbook: Capitalizing on AMCR's Volatility
• 200-day average: 8.98 (far below) • RSI: 99.07 (overbought) • MACD: 2.93 (bullish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: $26.21 (upper), $10.24 (middle) • 30D Support: $8.11–$8.83

Amcor's technical profile suggests a critical juncture. The RSI at 99.07 signals extreme overbought conditions, while the MACD (2.93) and bullish divergence hint at potential exhaustion. Key support levels at $8.11–$8.83 (30D) and $7.82–$8.55 (200D) could dictate near-term direction. With the Paper & Packaging sector underperforming, bearish options strategies gain traction.

Top Options Contracts:
• AMCR20260220P40 (Put, $40 strike, Feb 20 expiration):
- IV: 25.68% (moderate)
- Leverage: 57.57%
- Delta: -0.3175 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.019188 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.1063 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 1,891 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside (ST=39.47): $0.97 per contract
- This put offers balanced leverage and liquidity for a bearish bias, with gamma amplifying gains if AMCR breaks below $40.

• AMCR20260220P43 (Put, $43 strike, Feb 20 expiration):
- IV: 16.39% (reasonable)
- Leverage: 31.88%
- Delta: -0.7560 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.015379 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.1450 (very high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 745 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside (ST=39.47): $3.53 per contract
- This deep-in-the-money put provides substantial upside for a sharper decline, leveraging high gamma to capitalize on volatility.

Action Insight: Aggressive bears should prioritize AMCR20260220P43 for a 5% downside scenario, while cautious traders may use AMCR20260220P40 as a hedge. Both contracts benefit from AMCR's elevated gamma and moderate IV, positioning for a continuation of the post-split selloff.

Backtest Amcor Stock Performance
After experiencing a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present, AMCR has shown mixed short-term performance but has generally recovered, with a maximum return of 9.32% over 30 days.

AMCR at Crossroads: Watch $38.325 Support for Clarity
Amcor's post-split selloff has created a critical inflection point. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $38.325 and facing bearish technical indicators, the immediate focus shifts to key support levels. The Paper & Packaging sector's underperformance, led by International Paper's -0.89% decline, amplifies the need for AMCR to demonstrate resilience. Investors should monitor the $38.325 level as a potential catalyst for a rebound or further deterioration. For now, bearish options strategies and short-term volatility playbooks remain compelling, but patience is warranted as the market digests the reverse split's long-term implications.